THE Fine Gael party is on course to win three seats out of four in Mayo in the forthcoming general election.
That’s according to a constituency opinion poll conducted by research firm, Millward Brown, on behalf of the Irish Independent.
Paul Moran, an associate director with Millward Brown, said it is a statistical dead heat between outgoing Fine Gael duo Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Minister of State Michael Ring to top the poll, with Kenny just shading it with 24% first preferences compared to 23% for the Westport-based TD.
Coming in third position on 19% is outgoing Fianna Fáil Deputy Dara Calleary, 3% more than is required to win a seat.
Stated Moran: “The question of late is whether Michelle Mulherin (FG) can hang on long enough to snatch the fourth seat. She is considered vulnerable from a couple of flanks - Rose Conway-Walsh (SF) on one side and the outside chance of a second FF seat on the other.
“Mulherin’s first preference vote, when undecideds are excluded, is 9%. On these results, she is being outpolled by Conway-Walsh on 11% and is just marginally ahead of Lisa Chambers (FF) on 8%.
“However, this is Mayo. The combined strength of Fine Gael is still huge. Between its three candidates, it musters nearly three quotas (56% of the declared vote).
“This may well be the saving grace for Mulherin. Transfer patterns, if efficiently managed, should get her over the line.”