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Mayo County Council OfficesMayo County Council OfficesTHE 31 elected members of Mayo County Council are bracing themselves for a major shake-up that will put their political careers firmly on the line.

They will be told in advance of the next local elections in 2014 the number of seats on the authority will be slashed by at least six and possibly as many as eight.

While a number of retirements are imminent, the pressure on those intent on seeking re-election will be greater than ever before.

The council is currently made up of seven representatives from the Castlebar electoral area, six from the Ballina and Claremorris areas, and four from the Belmullet, Swinford and Westport districts.

In the event of the number of councillors being cut by six, the likelihood is that each of the existing electoral areas will each lose one representative.

Such a course of action, however, would result in three of the districts being served by just three members, a situation

opposed by the boundary commission that met in advance of the last local elections in 2009.

If it can be taken for granted the forthcoming review will not reverse the recommendations of the previous commission

in terms of three-seat divisions, then one or two of the existing electoral areas could be chopped to pave the pay for the downsizing.

In fact, five five-seater areas would be the simple solution to the issue, although it is hardly likely to be as straightforward as that.

According to informed sources, population trends will come strongly into the equation when members of the commission consider their options.

The preliminary census results for 2011, published earlier this year, revealed the county’s population increased by 5.4 per cent from 123,838 in 2006 to 130,552.

There were increases in the vast proportion of urban and rural areas, including the Belmullet rural area, which is frequently held up as a region hard hit by emigration.

But the biggest popular districts are those located in and around the major urban centres of Ballina, Castlebar, Claremorris (which includes Ballinrobe) and Westport.

On that basis, a strong case could be made for just four electoral areas consisting of six elected members each, with the existing Swinford and Belmullet districts being scrapped and incorporated into Claremorris and Ballina.

To compensate for the loss of electoral areas in Swinford and Belmullet, sub-offices will be retained there.

In such a scenario, Newport, Mulranny and possibly Achill would transfer to the Westport electoral area, with Foxford becoming part of Castlebar or Ballina.

A 24-strong council would achieve a reduction of seven seats, which would more than meet the commission’s  bjectives.

From a political perspective, the pressure to be reelected is likely to be greatest on councillors living in peripheral  locations with smaller populations like Bonniconlon, Achill, Louisburgh, Mulranny, Moygownagh, Geesala, Kilmeena and Hollymount.

There will also be less representation from the bigger urban centres and the likelihood of two councillors being elected from towns like Ballinrobe and Belmullet is considerably lessened.

Even so, it is impossible to accurately predict how the electorate will react to the alterations when the time comes.

An outgoing councillor is ultimately judged, however, on how he or she performed during their term in office.

There will be casualties nonetheless, and it’s the reason why serving councillors are looking forward to the review with trepidation and anxiety.

Hollymount-based Fine Gael Councillor Patsy O’Brien, whose vote of 2,760 in the 2009 local election was the highest ever first preference return achieved by a candidate in the county council races, gave his reaction to the planned review.

He said: “It has certainly focussed the minds of all elected representatives. There can be no question about that. We don’t know what the exact outcome will be. From what we hear, it looks certain at least six seats will go. Naturally, that will put pressure on those of us who intend seeking re-election.

“Some of the recommendations of the 2009 commission did not work as far as Mayo is concerned. The town of Newport

is a perfect case in point.

One half of it is in Westport and the other half is in Belmullet. It does not make sense.

“There are other communities unhappy with the areas they are in. Ballycastle, for example, was switched from Ballina to Belmullet, an area that is bigger in geographical terms than County Louth.

“I hope those conducing the review will take such issues into account.”

The most radical change that could come down the line is the amalgamation of Mayo with Roscommon County Council, with a representation of just 25 members between the two authorities.

Such a move would lead to a fierce political backlash. The days are also numbered for Mayo’s three town councils as the dilution of local democracy takes a firm hold over the coming years due to the slow demise of the commercial rates system.