Expect a comfortable Mayo win - Martin Carney
THE Connaught Telegraph's GAA analyst Martin Carney gives his prediction on tomorrow's Connaught SFC semi-final against Leitrim.
IF we are to believe the ‘experts’ and allow statistical evidence to inform our opinion, then Sunday’s championship tie with Leitrim is a foregone conclusion.
Over the opening weekend seven teams exited the competition, with average winning margins for the victors close to 13 points. But with clashes that involved teams from something approaching the same league ranking, little separated the contestants. Take the cases of Wicklow v Wexford and Carlow v Longford. Both were tight-run affairs and even though Offaly eventually proved triumphant against Louth by a nine-point margin, the game went to extra time before a winner emerged.
However, in the case of Mayo, Donegal and Kerry, proverbial cricket scores constituted the margins between winner and loser. Once again last weekend, the winning margins of Division 1 teams Armagh and Monaghan against Division 3 and 4 teams were huge.
So, what are the prospects of a competitive championship game next weekend? Is there any hope of a real contest or a surprise result? Let’s be honest, I think not. If past results are anything to go by then your money is safe on Mayo.
Leitrim and Mayo have crossed swords on the football pitch only twice in the last decade, with Mayo easily winning on both occasions – in 2012 by a 22-point margin and last year in Carrick-on-Shannon by 11 points. Current evidence would suggest that little will change this time as Leitrim struggled in Division 4 of the league without registering a single win. Sligo, Louth and Antrim each got the better of them, with a single point defeat to the Ulster men the only game that resembled a contest.
Over their last nine games (going back to the start of the 2020 league), Leitrim have registered a solitary draw to go alongside eight defeats. That draw against Derry promised much at the start of last season but was never built on. In terms of goals scored and conceded during these games, the statistic that stands out is that in total they managed to find the net on three occasions only while at the other end they have conceded a total of 13.
So, coming up against a Mayo side that looked impressive against Sligo, there is little to suggest that they have the talent to match the quality of teams from yesteryear. In another era, in the time of Declan Darcy, Mickey Quinn, Mickey Martin and Seamus Quinn, among others, Leitrim were never less that competitive and more often than not impressively formidable.
How then will Mayo approach a game that they know they are expected to win at a canter? Will James Horan be tempted to rest some of the more established players with a view to avoiding injury and having them fresh for the Connacht showdown with Galway?
In Donegal, I know many have questioned the decision to risk Michael Murphy in their opening Ulster championship game with Down; this in a game they were virtually certain to win and with a player who was vulnerable to a recurrence of a hamstring strain. Are some in the Mayo team who are carrying knocks, strains and the effects of a congested season worth resting in order to safeguard them from further risk? If some of the key personnel have any issues regarding fitness, benching them for the day would seem the prudent route to take.
TEAMWORK
There was much to admire about Mayo’s display against Sligo. The team is supremely conditioned and possesses levels of fitness, speed and teamwork that Leitrim will struggle to deal with.
The attacking threats posed from every line of the team was evident throughout, with a fluent and consistent supply route to the forwards never waning.
In a full-back line that struggles at times with the high, direct aerial approach they nonetheless possess attacking instincts that can unhinge the opposition. Lee Keegan is adept at dealing with every possible scenario: marking the oppositions’ danger men, organising the newbies alongside him and surging forward are all part of his brief.
The indefatigable Patrick Durcan at centre half-back has become the source for much of the creative output up front while Eoghan McLaughlin’s speed in support of the attack will hopefully grow game on game. His general skillset and ease in possession has improved over the winter and provided that his defensive reading of the game continues to grow, he will be a handful.
Who will man the right flank is open to question. Michael Plunkett and Enda Hession are present tenants but with Padraig O’Hora, Stephen Coen, Colm Boyle, Rory Brickenden and Eoghan O’Donoghue breathing down their necks, competition is fierce.
There seems no need to disrupt a midfield set-up that has impressed. Matthew Ruane and Conor Loftus, with help from Kevin McLoughlin and Aidan O’Shea, will continue to serve the cause.
O’Shea’s role in Sligo, where he drifted between the full-forward position and midfield, worked well, while Darren McHale was a revelation at 11. This game provides an opportunity for further developing his game and growing in understanding with his attacking colleagues. Yes, the opposition so far has been below par but there is enough raw material in McHale to suggest that he is worth persevering with in the immediate future.
Other positions are up for grabs though. The internal contest to tie down wing forward in particular, a position that demands a multiplicity of skills, is still ongoing. Bryan Walsh, Jordan Flynn and Fionn McDonagh are in an ongoing battle to set up shop there but to date, none seem to have done enough for an outright claim.
The opposite is the case inside where the beaverish Ryan O’Donoghue and Tommy Conroy seem certain of their places.
I’m interested in seeing the line-up that James Horan has in store. I expect a comfortable Mayo win and as a bonus hope to see the team coming out the other end without any further injuries or having to contend with the after-effects of any ill discipline.
*You can read Martin Carney's exclusive column every Tuesday in our print edition.