Will Mayo qualify for fifth Dáil seat?
The prospect of Mayo being restored to a five-seat constituency for the first time since the 2011 general election is in the balance.
The results of the 2022 Census are expected to reveal a rise in the county's population, but whether or not it will be significant enough to justify an increase in the county's Dáil Éireann representation remains to be seen.
The Constitution states that the number of TDs cannot be more than one for every 20,000 of the population and cannot be less than one for every 30,000.
The population of Mayo in the 2016 census was 130,507, giving it an entitlement of four TDs, based on the maximum guideline.
For it to increase to five Dáil deputies, it would need to show an increase of 20,000. This is based on figures which resulted in Mayo losing a Dáil seat ahead of the 2016 general election when outgoing TD Michelle Mulherin (FG) lost out to Fianna Fáil duo Dara Calleary and Lisa Chambers, who filled the last two seats without reaching the quota to join Enda Kenny (FG) and Michael Ring (FG) in Leinster House.
The changes are expected to come into play ahead of the next scheduled general election in 2025.
The speculation has emerged after the cabinet approved Electoral Reform Bill amendments to allow for the number of TDs to increase from 160 to at least 169 and not more than 179.
There are currently 39 Dáil constituencies and the planned increase will result in a number of boundary redraws.
In Mayo's case, the population growth in urban centres like Castlebar, Ballina, Claremorris and Westport could tip the balance towards additional representation, but it's uncertain at this point.
However, the latest estimate of Ireland's population is 5.01 million compared to 4.47 million in the 2016 census, a hike of over half a million.
That rise is more likely to be revealed in the country's largest cities than a rural county like Mayo, where population increases have been detected but hardly on the scale of 20,000.
In any event, the final number of TDs to form the next government will be not be decided until recent census data is calculated.
Interestingly, Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien has also secured government approval for amendments to the Electoral Reform Bill 2022 and the Electoral Act 1997 to ensure the donations from non-citizens outside the state are not used to influence Ireland’s elections, democratic processes and also to protect it from online interference.
As reported by the Irish Examiner, there has been constant criticism in recent years from Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Leo Varadkar of Sinn Féin's large-scale fundraising campaigns in the United States.
An expanded role for a new Electoral Commission will see it have an enhanced monitoring and investigations role in respect of regulating online electoral information.
The new amendment also allows for sanctions where an online platform or a buyer of an online political advertisement fails to provide written information to the Electoral Commission following a request.
There will also be some new rules for how political parties operate online.
A range of statutory obligations will apply to the users of online platforms not to disseminate false online electoral information which the user knows to be false, or to engage in manipulative or inauthentic behaviour, including the undisclosed use of internet bots, where such use is capable of affecting the integrity of an election.
Meanwhile, the two main government parties have, according to the latest The Irish Times/Ipsos poll, closed the gap on Sinn Féin as the nation's most popular party.
Fianna Fáil has gained three percentage points to reach 23% while Fine Gael is up two to 22%.
And Micheál Martin is the most popular party leader in the country according to the poll, up eight points to 51%. Leo Varadkar is up three to 48% with Mary Lou McDonald falling two to 42% satisfaction.