Polls suggest Sinn Féin is on course to win two Mayo Dáil seats
by Tallyman
Controversial Sligo TD Marc MacSharry claims the ongoing surge of Sinn Féin is ‘the result of neglect and appeasement’.
The outspoken representative was referring to the May 2022 Red C/Sunday Business Post poll for the Connaught/Ulster region which showed Sinn Féin support at 39% compared to 23% for Fianna Fáil and 22% for Fine Gael.
Compared with a similar poll conducted in February ‘22, it revealed a 12% rise in Sinn Féin’s support, with Fianna Fáil enjoying a similar bounce from a low of 11% and Fine Gael's standing showed little change.
Now if those figures stand up in the next general election in the Mayo constituency, a four-seater as it stands, the likely outcome would be Sinn Féin (two seats), Fine Gael (one seat) and Fianna Fáil (one seat), not taking into account the prospect of an independent candidate like Ballina Councillor Mark Duffy making a resounding impact.
For Fine Gael, in particular, that is a cause of some alarm as the party has two serving TDs, Alan Dillon and Michael Ring, who shared 39.5% of the vote in the 2022 general election, a campaign in which the party's support had dropped by 10.6%.
However, Fianna Fáil, currently served in Dáil Éireann by Dara Calleary, will also have reason for concern as a result of the manner in which Sinn Féin undermined their core vote two years ago, resulting in the lost of the party seat held in Castlebar by Lisa Chambers.
Without knowing who the second Sinn Féin candidate in Mayo is going to be and where he or she is based, it is difficult to formulate a proper analysis.
But, in view of what happened in other constituencies in 2020, the prospect of Deputy Rose Conway-Walsh bringing a second candidate over the line with her, on the back of a 39% surge (if it materialises), cannot be dismissed.
It would be a surprise if the party has not already identified who it wants on the ticket. But it looks increasingly likely Sinn Féin won't fully reveal its hand until after the 2024 local elections in which that 'probable candidate' will be a contender.
It seems a bit of a gamble to leave it so late in the day, so to speak, but Sinn Féin don't do general elections like other parties do.
In the meantime, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil must figure out ways of combating a rise that simply appears unstoppable.
Exposing faults in Sinn Féin policies is simply not working as the public is not giving much credence to the messenger.
The political landscape has reached a remarkable position in which Sinn Féin are perceived as a political entity that can do no wrong, despite the fact that they have not been shouldered with the role of government responsibility, while the two traditional parties are seen by large numbers of the electorate as not being capable of doing too many things right, despite them having achieved quite a number of good things.
For better or for worse, the train is apparently only going in one direction.
Without ever admitting it, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be bracing themselves for a period in the opposition benches for the first time in the history of the State.
They will utilise the opportunity to reinvent themselves and a new era in Irish political life will get underway.