Constituency change forces Mayo's main parties into strategy re-think

The decision to increase the number of seats in Mayo from four to five in the next general election has presented the three main parties in the county with strategy problem.

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin had each been planning to field two candidates in the election scheduled for 2025 but could now be brought forward to November 2024.

Now they must have an urgent rethink and start seeking a third candidate after a large section of south Mayo - including Shrule, The Neale, Kilmaine and Cong - was returning to the constituency with the bonus of an extra seat.

In these circumstances, speculation is already focused on Shrule-native, Fine Gael MEP Maria Walsh, and the fact she could be asked to consider running alongside outgoing party TDs Alan Dillon and Michael Ring.

But if she is re-elected in next year's European Parliament elections, she might not be available to do so.

And that could offer a political lifeline to former Ballina TD and senator Michelle Mulherin.

However, it was interesting how this morning Alan Dillon shared a photograph of himself in Shrule shortly after the five-seat announcement with the caption: "Working for South Mayo."

Does he know something we don't?

The new Mayo political landscape also offers a golden opportunity to Castlebar-based Fianna Fáil Senator Lisa Chambers to win back her Dáil seat.

At this point, she is widely tipped to run as a party candidate in next year's European Parliament elections.

In the event of her being successful, she is unlikely to return to national politics so swiftly.

So Fianna Fáil have a lot of work to do in respect of formulating a three-candidate strategy as outgoing Minister for State Dara Calleary is the only certainty on the FF ticket at this stage.

Sinn Féin must also consider its own plans for a third contender to join outgoing Rose Conway Walsh and Charlestown Councillor Gerry Murray.

Don't be surprised if Balla-based Donna Hyland, a candidate in next year's local elections in the Castlebar Municipal District, is put in the ticket.

In the last Mayo general election held under a five-seat structure, Fine Gael won four seats (Enda Kenny, Michael Ring, John O'Mahony and Michelle Mulherin) in an astonishing show of strength as Castlebar TD Enda Kenny was poised to be appointed Taoiseach.

However, it is generally believed that five-seat constituencies suit the aspirations of the smaller parties and independents.

That may work in favour of Ballina Independent Councillor Mark Duffy and south Mayo-based Aontú representative Paul Lawless.

The door could be open for Hollymount independent Councillor Patsy O'Brien, who missed out on securing a Fine Gael nomination to run the the 2020 senator elections.

A fascinating aspect of the changes is that Galway West remains a five-seater despite the loss of ground in south Mayo.

For that to happen, along with Mayo gaining a seat, was not widely expected.

Overall the number of TDs for the next Dáil will be increased by 14 to 174.

But surely the ongoing rise in the number of TDs cannot be justified going forward?