Mayo restored to Dáil five-seater in a political game-changer

The Electoral Commission has recommended that the Mayo constituency is restored to a five-seater for the next general election.

The wave of submissions seeking the return of a significant section of south Mayo to the constituency won over the commission.

The commission stated: "The Mayo constituency should become a 5 seat constituency, with the addition of one seat.

"Six electoral divisions in the south-eastern part of Co. Mayo with a total population of 5,926 are recommended for transfer to the Mayo constituency from the Galway West constituency.

"As a result of this transfer and the population increase in the Mayo constituency, it is recommended that the Mayo constituency should become a 5 seat constituency.

"The Mayo constituency would have a population of 137,970 with a variance of -6.75%.

"The primary factors for the Commission in relation to the Mayo constituency was the breach of the county boundary by the Galway West constituency, and the increase of 7,069 (5.66%) of population in the Mayo constituency since the 2016 Census.

"The four seat Mayo constituency, with a population of 132,044, has a variance of 11.55% which is beyond what the commission would consider acceptable.

"Submissions received by the commission were overwhelmingly in favour of removing the breach in the Mayo county boundary.

"Many submissions called for Mayo to be allocated an extra seat and become a five seat constituency.

"The commission’s recommendation sees the breach of Co. Mayo removed, and reverts to the arrangement in place between 1995 and 2013."

The development is a game-changer from a political perspective, giving an opportunity to south Mayo to elect a TD to office.

In the last Mayo general election held under a five-seat structure, Fine Gael won four seats (Enda Kenny, Michael Ring, John O'Mahony and Michelle Mulherin) in an astonishing show of strength as Castlebar TD Enda Kenny was poised to be appointed Taoiseach.

However, it is generally believed that five-seat constituencies suit the aspirations of the smaller parties and independents.

Now speculation will be rife that Shrule-native, Fine Gael MEP Maria Walsh, could be lined up to run for her party in Mayo in the next general election.

It also offers a golden opportunity to Castlebar-based Fianna Fáil Senator Lisa Chambers to win back her Dáil seat. At this point, she is widely tipped to run as a party candidate in next year's European Parliament elections.

Sinn Féin is also likely to have its own ideas, as will other parties, while the door could be open for Hollymount independent Councillor Patsy O'Brien.

The serving Mayo TDs are Dara Calleary (FF, Ballina), Rose Conway-Walsh (SF, Belmullet) Alan Dillon (FG, Castlebar) and Michael Ring (FG, Westport).

A fascinating aspect of the changes is that Galway West remains a five-seater despite the loss of ground in south Mayo.

For that to happen, along with Mayo gaining a seat, was not widely expected.

Overall the number of TDs for the next Dáil will be increased by 14 to 174.

Seven constituencies remain unchanged - Clare, Cork South West, Donegal, Dublin Central, Kerry, Limerick County and Waterford.

As stated earlier, Galway West retains its five seats while Galway East increased from three to four.

The Roscommon-Galway constituency stays a three-seater while Sligo Leitrim keeps its four seats despite the transfer of electoral divisions to Roscommon-Galway.

There is some speculation that the next general election may be held in November 2024.

In regard to the constituencies for next year's European Parliament elections, the commission said it is likely Ireland's representation will increase by one seat to 14.

This is expected to be allocated to the Midlands North West constituency with a section of north Leinster being transferred into it.

An announcement is expected shortly in regard to this matter.

The main recommendations of the commission are:

1. Significantly reduce county boundary breaches - that see people voting in a constituency outside of their county. The number of county boundary breaches has been minimised in a 174 seat Dáil. The commission recommends the removal of seven of the 10 existing breaches of county boundaries, reductions in the size of two existing breaches, and proposes just three new county boundary breaches.

2. Maintain a relative balance of seats across constituencies - as the number of 3 seat constituencies will be 13 instead of 9, the number of 4 seat constituencies will be 15 instead of 17 and the number of 5 seat constituencies will be 15 instead of 13.

3. Maintain a high level of continuity in the arrangement of constituencies - Seven constituencies remain entirely unchanged since the last review (Clare, Cork South-West, Donegal, Dublin Central, Kerry, Limerick County, and Waterford).

"The commission took a significant decision that it would work, wherever practicable, to remove or reduce existing breaches to county boundaries, and avoid creating new breaches.

"Where necessary to achieve this, the commission decided it would go to variances beyond the 5% variance of the last two reports, and has gone as far as 8.13% variances in this report.

"In its work the Commission noted that recommending a higher number of seats would have resulted in significant numbers of county boundary breaches and high levels of discontinuity," a press release outlined.

The chair of An Coimisiún Toghcháin, the Electoral Commission, Supreme Court Judge, Ms. Justice Marie Baker, stated: “Our recommendation for 174 TDs across 43 constituencies is the product of detailed analysis of constitutional and statutory limits. It arrives at a solution which best fits the needs of the country as a whole, as our population expands

“The commission is pleased to be in a position to recommend the removal of seven of the 10 existing breaches of county boundaries, reductions in the size of two existing breaches and to propose just three new county boundary breaches in the recommended constituency composition.

“Thanks to all those hundreds of people, parties and organisations who shared their ideas and proposals with us. Each was considered in making our final recommendations.”

“This constituency review is the first task of Ireland’s new Electoral Commission, An Coimisiún Toghcháin. At barely six months old, we are proud to deliver this significant democratic review of Ireland’s constituencies, the building blocks of our democracy, on time and in line with our statutory mandate.”

In relation to the European Parliament Constituency Review, Ms. Justice Marie Baker stated: “The EU institutions have been deliberating for several months about the overall European Parliament composition, but no final decision on an additional seat has yet been confirmed. In this situation we have had to recommend the status quo while we await confirmation on a likely additional MEP seat for Ireland.”