How the bookmakers will be assessing the race for Mayo political ‘vacancy’
Deputy Michael Ring looks set not to contest the next general election, a move that will come as a blow to Fine Gael as they have relied on the Westport man to romp home at each election he contested in Mayo.
Minister of State Alan Dillon is the other Fine Gael TD in the county but speculation is mounting over who the party will select to try and retain Ring’s seat in Mayo in the event of his likely retirement being confirmed.
Ring’s support base was varied and not Fine Gael specific since first being elected to national politics in 1994.
He was known the length and breadth of the county and campaigned right across party bounds.
It’s an old-style personal vote that Ring possessed and now with the rise of independents in the polls, it could very well be a scenario where an independent is elected to the position expected to be vacated by the long-serving Westport representative.
Here are some of the names that bookmakers would consider contenders for the 'vacancy'.
Michelle Mulherin
A former Mayo Fine Gael TD and senator, there is a strong possibility of her being in the frame next year. A two-candidate approach could see the party winning seats in Ballina and Castlebar.
If so, she would probably be the leading contender to win the seat, especially as Mayo has been restored to a five seater.
Lisa Chambers
The retirement of Michael Ring would give her a golden opportunity to win back the Dáil seat she lost in 2020. She finished in fifth place in Mayo in the election four years ago and would be poised to make a serious challenge.
Even in the event of her being elected to the European Parliament next June, the Castlebar Fianna Fail senator would love to return to Dáil Eireann. A leading contender.
Peter Flynn
Flynn's criticism of certain local projects may have polarised opinions, potentially limiting his appeal across the county.
However, being the only Fine Gael councillor in the Westport area could still give him a base of support to build upon. Whether or not he has the appetite for national politics remains to be seen.
Maria Walsh
A lot will depend on June’s European Parliament elections but Maria Walsh could come into the fray nationally if needed by party HQ.
A former Rose of Tralee winner, Walsh has been vocal on gender rights and speaks about topics such as mental health. Shrule and Ballindine moving into the five-seat Mayo constituency for the next General Election will be a boost to her Dáil aspirations.
At this point, she is probably another short-odds favourite in the race.
Christy Hyland
As a Westport-based independent councillor, Hyland may have local recognition and support, but whether he can translate that into success at the national level remains to be seen.
His appeal beyond party lines could be an asset and, of course, he is a former member of Fine Gael and worked closely with Deputy Ring during his years in the party.
Myles Staunton
A son of former TD and senator, the late Myles Staunton, and a former elected member of Westport Town Council, he could be coaxed to enter the fray.
But he has not been closely involved in the local political scene in recent years.
Lee Keegan
Could Fine Gael do in Westport what it did in Castlebar prior to the last general election in 2020 by convincing another former Mayo GAA star, Lee Keegan, to follow in the footsteps of newly-appointed Mayo Minister of State Alan Dillon?
Possibly not but in politics, as in sport, you can never be sure what's around the corner.
Gerry Murray
Although at the opposite end of the constituency, Charlestown-based Sinn Fein Councillor Gerry Murray is sure to be on the ticket as his party seeks to double its Mayo representation in Dáil Éireann.
The national opinion polls suggest two seats could be on the cards for them.
Donna Hyland
In the event of her winning a Sinn Féin seat on Castlebar Municipal District in next June's local elections, Donna Hyland could become her party's third Mayo candidate in the next general election and, in the current climate, you could not bet against Sinn Féin winning a seat in the west of the constituency.
Patsy O’Brien
Roundfort-based independent county councillor Patsy O’Brien will be a leading figure in seeking to capitalise on a significant area of south Mayo being returned to the Mayo constituency for the next general election.
And the former Fine Gael man is in a perfect strategic position to do so. His pulling power in the last two local elections underlines his potential.
Mark Duffy
Duffy's rising popularity, particularly in Ballina, and his international attention following his speech before Joe Biden could position him as a strong contender.
His track record of local campaigns and town development could be appealing to voters.
Paul Lawless
As an Aontu representative and a native of Knock, Lawless brings a different political perspective to the table.
His background as a former soccer player and current schoolteacher could resonate with constituents, potentially broadening his appeal beyond traditional party lines, possibly granting Aontu a second TD in the Dáil.
The next general election presents a golden opportunity for south and east Mayo to win back Dáil representation after a long absence.
Gerry Loftus
Loftus's recent success in spearheading the Lahardane GP campaign could boost his profile and credibility among voters.
His background as a farmer will also appeal to rural constituents, as will his documented campaign against plantations of sitka spruce.
However, his decision to run for local elections in June could impact on his availability and willingness to contest a national seat.
Saoirse McHugh
McHugh's environmentalist perspective and strong performance in the 2020 election indicate a growing appetite for alternative voices in Mayo politics. However, her decision not to run again could be disappointing for supporters seeking fresh perspectives.
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