A Mayo View: Unprecedented FF and FG partnership is having an election impact

There is nothing like an opinion poll to focus attention and generate debate about an election campaign.

And that’s exactly what happened at the weekend when the Irish Times and the Irish Independent published the results of polls they had commissioned in respect of the five-seat midlands north-west constituency of the European Parliament elections.

While there were some differences between the two studies, they shared the same overall assessment of the likely outcome.

That’s the prediction that each of the three main parties, namely Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, are on course to win one seat with the other two going to independents or Aontú.

However, there is also a chance that one of the three main parties could win two seats at the expense of the independents or Aontú in the event of transfers and other factors falling in their favour.

Significantly, the widely-anticipated backlash against Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael does not appear to be imminent at this time.

This may have something to do with the fact that the two so-called Civil War parties are no longer at loggerheads with one another during an election campaign because of the relationship they have built up as a result of working together in government since the 2020 general election.

Despite the problems they have encountered over the past four and a half years or so, it would seem that growing sectors of the electorate regard them as a safe pair of hands at a time of worldwide conflict and uncertainty.

Of course, nobody can be sure whether or not such is the case until after the outcome of the next general election.

But there is little question that the decline in Sinn Féin’s popularity over the past number of months is the biggest story in the Irish political arena at this particular junction – and the timing is bad for the party with the local and European elections just a few short weeks away.

However, Sinn Féin are still in a much better position than they were prior to the 2019 local elections in which they performed particularly poorly.

The reality as far as Mayo is concerned is that Sinn Féin has its biggest representation ever – nine candidates - running in the county council election and it will bring them good returns despite the party’s opinion poll setbacks.

It is clear the electorate is starting to make up its collective mind and while the level of change may not be as radical as many were predicting, it will still send out a strong message in respect of social issues.

And there's a general election still to come.