A series of shocks are on the cards in Mayo's biggest electoral area
by CAOIMHÍN ROWLAND
Sinn Féin have placed all of their eggs into the Castlebar basket, aiming to reap some of Rose Conway-Walsh’s impressive tally from 2020 General Election.
However, with no traditional base in the county town and polls squeezing the party by independents, the lack of local groundwork done by the party in recent years could catch up to them.
As forecast in Belmullet and Ballina where Sinn Féin's Rose has offices, there’s been little presence of the party in the Castlebar MD since her election.
Donna Hyland, a nurse from Manulla, is the Sinn Féin lead candidate.
She has worked immensely hard to cover every possible house in the electoral area, visiting estates and villages in the hinterland twice, to try and get people she missed on her first canvass.
It’s a work rate second to none but the people of Mayo are parochial.
Sinn Féin, without a base in Castlebar, will struggle and their two candidates, Hyland and Maura O’Sullivan, have minimal name recognition despite trojan work.
It would be a headline story in and of itself if Sinn Féin fail to get one over the line in Castlebar but it may well happen.
Independents Day could be most visible in Castlebar electoral area where Michael Kilcoyne rules the roost.
The undertaker is plated to top the poll once more while another former Labour Party candidate, Harry Barrett, is also likely to record a significant vote.
He has trudged the long road since last summer, followed developments from municipal meetings and responded in rapid time. The former town councillor will be hoisted on shoulders in the TF count centre, one would suspect.
Two of the next likeliest independents in contention are Stephen Kerr of Breaffy and Gerry Loftus of Lahardane.
Again, that 3,000 vote from Castlebar to Sinn Féin was a loan and from an angry cohort looking to stick it to the establishment. Kerr has had canvassing teams out with him around the municipal district in recent weeks and his name creeps up on doors he’s not even canvassed.
His online platform 'Irish Inquiry' is watched across the globe, the question is whether there’s enough voters in this area who believe a single-issue, anti-immigration candidate is the answer to their woes.
A silent grouping might cast a vote for him and never admit it outside of the polling booth.
Gerry Loftus is the old dog for the long road. A long-time activist on rural affairs and farming issues, his locality tasted success in overturning the decision to amalgamate Lahardane’s GP service with Crossmolina. Loftus led much of the campaign and garnered positive column inches for his work.
He also has a large social media following on TikTok - the farmer from the butt of Nephin reached over 100,000 views on a video about poor roads in Mayo.
Sinn Féin previously have been the go-to digital party, consistently connecting with the younger generation.
Those days have since passed and when local issues and matters reign supreme and you have an online platform like Kerr and to a lesser extent Loftus, you resonate with the electorate more deeply.
Political scientists have theorised the reason why Ireland has no far-right party is because Sinn Féin operate in that nationalist sphere.
No party gets more vilification than Sinn Féin from the far-right, so the battle between Kerr and Mary Lou’s party will reveal all.
Cyril Burke (FG), for the first time in his political history, looks to be under serious threat.
Donna Sheridan (FG) has received the backing of Michael Ring and his presence has been a boost to her campaign.
Once believed to be the most likely to lose their seat, Sheridan has clawed back support and may benefit from a shock Burke elimination to accompany colleague Ger Deere back to office.
Blackie Gavin (FF) and Al McDonnell (FF) will hold on for their respective final terms as councillors. But Donal Geraghty will eat into the former’s return.
PREDICTION
Independents (3), Fine Gael (2), Fianna Fáil (2).