'Euro' seats to be divided in five equal measures in MNW constituency
Two for the west and three on the eastern side
With over one million voters on the electoral register and 27 candidates in the field, the contest for the five seats in the midlands north-west constituency of the European Parliament elections is quite a vast battleground.
According to election expert Professor Adrian Kavanagh, it covers 53.1% of the state and is larger in terms of area than five European states, namely Belgium, Slovenia, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta.
It has certainly felt that way for those candidates who chose to present themselves in each of the 15 counties that form the territory, Offaly and Laois having been added by the electoral commission in the process of approving an additional fifth seat since the last outing in 2019 when the constituency was made up of Cavan, Donegal, Galway, Kildare, Leitrim, Longford, Louth, Mayo, Meath, Monaghan, Roscommon, Sligo and Westmeath.
The change, which brings in an additional 175,000 voters, very much leans in the favour in the contenders based on the more eastern side of the Shannon, with three MEPs likely to be elected from that area compared to two on the western front, so to speak.
If that proves to be the case, then it makes the task of Mayo's two leading challengers, namely outgoing Fine Gael MEP Maria Walsh and Fianna Fáil senator and former Castlebar-based TD Lisa Chambers, all the greater.
And particularly so when opinion polls are consistently showing that outgoing Roscommon Independent MEP Luke 'Ming' Flanagan is a proverbial 'shoo in' to retain his seat while it would be a major surprise if Sinn Féin, represented by MEP Chris MacManus and Michelle Gildernew MP, fail to retain its seat, secured by Matt Carthy five years ago, when the party's popularity of 23%, albeit a sizeable drop in recent months, is taken into account.
In these circumstances, Chambers and Walsh, both very capable, accomplished and articulate voices, could be left relying on unexpected twists in voting patterns which, in fairness, cannot be ruled out in these uncertain political times.
But, first and foremost, they require solid first preference returns to keep them in the equation when the transfers start to be divvied out.
That's what got Walsh over the line in 2019, a significant injection from her party colleague and poll-topper, Mairead McGuinness.
Fine Gael won’t have the luxury of such a prolific vote gatherer as McGuinness on this occasion with many national commentators believing that the party will just do enough to get one of their candidates elected, with newcomer Nina Carberry seemingly getting the nod in the polls ahead of the more experienced Walsh.
By the same token, Chambers has had to consistently read that Offaly-based TD Brian Cowen offers Fianna Fáil's best option of winning a seat for the party for the first time in 15 years.
But that is not a certainty, either, considering the royal battle taking place across the midlands between former RTÉ correspondent Ciaran Mullooly of Independent Ireland, Aontú leader Peader Toibín and the aforementioned Carberry and Cowen.
Something has to give but nobody can be quite sure what that will be.
Relatively little is known in these parts about Sinn Féin candidate Michelle Gildernew, MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone and a former minister of the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Despite her profile and impressive CV, she is very much an unknown quality in Irish public life in terms of her capacity to attract significant support across the border counties of Cavan, Louth, Monaghan, Donegal and Leitrim.
If she does, then her party's gamble in running her could prove to be inspirational.
Similar to 'Ming' Flanagan, her support base spreads across both east and west of the constituency, which has the greater potential to prove a winning formula.
Time will tell but the expectation is that we could be left waiting for a week for the final result.
PREDICTION
Fine Gael (1), Independent (1), Independent Ireland (1), Sinn Féin (1), Fianna Fáil (1).
LIST OF CANDIDATES
Maria Walsh, Fine Gael: Incumbent MEP for Midlands-North-West
Chris MacManus, Sinn Féin: Incumbent MEP for Midlands-North-West
Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent: Incumbent MEP for Midlands-North-West
Barry Cowen, Fianna Fáil: TD for Laois-Offaly
Peadar Tóibín, Aontú: TD for Meath East
Niall Blaney, Fianna Fáil: Senator
Lisa Chambers, Fianna Fáil: Leader of the Seanad and Senator
Pauline O’Reilly, Green Party: Senator
Nina Carberry, Fine Gael: Farmer and ex-professional jockey
Fergal Landy, Labour Party: Social Worker
Michelle Gildernew, Sinn Féin: MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Brian O’Boyle, People Before Profit-Solidarity: Lecturer
Rory Hearne, Social Democrats: Academic and housing expert
Dr. Gerry Waters, Independent: Medical Doctor, GP
John Waters, Independent: Writer
Peter Casey, Independent: Businessman
Saoirse McHugh, Independent: Digital campaigner
Michelle Smith, Independent: Accountant
Stephen Garland, Independent: Event manager
Daniel Pocock, Independent: Software and AI engineer
Charlotte Keenan, Independent: Sports psychologist, songwriter and artist
Ciaran Mullooly, Independent Ireland: Community Tourism Officer and former RTÉ journalist
Anthony Cahill, The Irish People: Engineer
Hermann Kelly, The Irish Freedom Party: European Parliamentary Assistant
Margaret Alacoque Maguire, Ireland First: Property Developer
James Reynolds, The National Party: Farmer
Justin Barrett, The National Party: Accountant