Mayo elections verdict: Independents and Sinn Féin to upset old guard

by CAOIMHÍN ROWLAND

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."

The infamous quote from Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin may have never been so apt in Mayo local politics than it is this week.

Polling from RedC indicates Independents are set to be the breadwinners after votes are tallied, with the local breakdown indicating 29% support for non-party candidates for local elections, while the Farmers Journals puts Independent Ireland at 11% for farmers’ first preferences.

It will be a seismic ballot with voters set to place a plague on all of the houses of established political parties, Sinn Féin included.

No matter the polls, nationally and in Mayo Sinn Féin are bound to have a good day. Their abysmal performance in 2019 sets a low benchmark.

While the opposite will be the situation for Fianna Fáil, they had an exceptionally good day last time out and their slip in support will see many councillors across the country lose their seat.

Question marks will reign over their party leader, Micheál Martin, in the aftermath of Friday’s vote.

It’s difficult to recall now but Mary Lou McDonald faced calls to go five years ago after a poor showing from her party. Then, of course, the 2020 general election consigned those calls to the history books.

Martin will be hoping for something similar if it does transpire to be a poor day for his councillors and MEPs on Friday.

One thing is for sure: the result of the ballot will make life difficult for councillors to coalesce and strike a deal with one another.

Fianna Fáil and Independents have reigned supreme in Mayo County Council for a decade and Fine Gael will fight to ensure they are in the shake-up for cathaoirleach nominations come the council AGM.

Perhaps another coalition with the two parties in local government will happen, much like their senior figures in Leinster House.

Of the independents to emerge, it is looking more and more likely that former Castlebar town councillor Harry Barrett will be elected to the chamber.

He has run an intense campaign covering the length and breadth of the Castlebar constituency and will be keen to get his teeth stuck into local politics.

Independent Ireland candidate Donal Geraghty will surely have been buoyed by the Farmers Journal poll also.

It will be a fascinating time to be a county councillor over the next five years.

Money is available for large scale capital projects, including the long-awaited Project Big-Wig, which is the Ballina – Castlebar – Westport inter-urban greenway.

Plans for redeveloping Castlebar town centre are afoot too with plans set to go to tender in late summer.

Housing is still, of course, the bread and butter on the doorsteps, and many voters express apathy towards local elections as crises around housing and health have dragged on for so long.

Fortunately, in Mayo the housing outlook isn’t as bleak in other parts of Ireland.

There are currently over 30 homes to rent privately on Daft.ie and that number has been consistent over the previous six months.

The price on the other hand is something that baulks many, with housing risen from €500 a month in small towns and villages pre-Covid to €1,500 now. Understandably, people feel like they are being fleeced.

Wages haven’t caught up in the county to keep pace with the private rental market as the shortage is driving up demand.

Fingers crossed plans for affordable homes and council lets will come on stream as projected to alleviate such woes.

Mayo Fine Gael Minster for State with a responsibility for local government, Alan Dillon, will also have a task at hand, aiming to increase powers to local authority members as the disillusionment from councillors is set to be tackled, granting them more powers.

How that pans out before an early winter election is anyone’s guess.

Could we one day see a directly elected Mayor of Mayo?

A role to focus on big-ticket capital projects with a budget to boost support for disadvantaged areas, perhaps to support Ireland West Airport and bang on the drum in support of the re-opening of the Western Rail Corridor.

One point that has been less spoken about in the media is the rise in speed levels passing through towns, making it dangerous for pedestrians. The issue has been raised to every candidate across all constituencies.

A notion by Minister for State Jack Chambers to reduce speed limits received a backlash from county councillors in Mayo some time ago.

Now, simultaneously, many are campaigning for more pedestrian crossings and traffic calming measures.

Surely by-passes for towns such as Ballina and Ballinrobe will come to the fore over the next five years as fears grow over interacting with high-speed motorists and rush-hour traffic congestion.

However the land lays on Saturday morning, it will be a sombre occasion for some and celebratory for others.

Characters will depart and new ones found, and the cycle of council life will continue.

That's how local democracy works.