5 takeaways from the Ballina tallies in the Mayo constituency

The Ballina tallies are now complete, offering insights into the political landscape ahead of the final count. Here are five key takeaways from this morning’s numbers at the TF in Castlebar.

1. Calleary leads, but support drops

Outgoing Fianna Fáil TD Dara Calleary has emerged as the frontrunner in Ballina, securing 4,329 first preference votes. However, his share of the vote has dropped significantly from 40% in 2020 to 34% in this tally. While still on top, the decline reflects shifting voter sentiment with more options locally to Calleary in the field this time around.

2. Independent Kerr sees a north Mayo surge

Stephen Kerr, an Independent candidate, has seen a notable surge in Ballina. His consistent performance across the area - with an average of 20 to 40 first preference votes in each box - has buoyed predictions that he may secure at least half a quota.

For those following the graph on Mayo Fine Gael’s spreadsheet, Keogh’s graph figures are Keogh’s. Click into the detailed breakdown to see the actual score.

Kerr’s recent focus on Ballina may be paying dividends. His involvement in the Twin Trees Hotel protests and the "Ballina Says No" movement appears to have resonated with local voters. Furthermore, public concern over the proposed use of St. Mary’s secondary school for IPAS housing has likely contributed to his support.

3. Duffy in for a dog fight

Mark Duffy of Fine Gael gave Calleary a close contest, appearing neck and neck at times. The former Mayor improved his party standing compared to Mulherin's performance in 2020 by 10%.

Ultimately, the experienced TD managed to pull ahead of the first-time general election candidate. Duffy - a former Independent - amassed 4,193 first preference votes and will be looking to bolster his standing in other areas of Mayo to secure a seat.

4. Sinn Féin holds its ground

Rose Conway-Walsh, Sinn Féin’s candidate from Belmullet, has maintained her base in Ballina, tallying 2,091 first preference votes. While this figure represents a decline from her performance in 2020, Conway-Walsh is likely to make up ground in her strongholds in Belmullet and Castlebar, where tallying is still underway. Sinn Féin will be disappointed with Murray’s performance in Ballina,

5. Looking ahead

With Ballina tallies complete, attention now turns to other parts of the county. Candidates will be hoping to consolidate their positions as tallies from Castlebar, Belmullet, and other areas are finalised. For now, Dara Calleary remains ahead, but his reduced vote share - coupled with strong challenges from both Duffy and Kerr - leaves the race far from settled.