Major generational swap looming in key Mayo political circles

by Caoimhín Rowland

POLITICAL posturing is appearing from all corners.

Only a presidential election looms in the near term, but on the local front change is swiftly anticipated as a historic level of generational renewal looks set to occur in Mayo, with a restructuring of Fianna Fáil believed to take place in the coming months, almost a year to date since the defection of Blackie Gavin towards the independent grouping inside council chambers.

It can be safely assumed that both of Castlebar’s two Fianna Fáil councillors will not be representing the party come the next local elections.

Al McDonnell, it is anticipated, will anoint a successor ahead of 2029’s vote, while Gavin, who has been with the party since he was a teenager, will have names up against him to unseat his long-standing position as a Castlebar representative for Fianna Fáil, on the county council since 2009, and first elected as a town councillor in 1999.

A generational swap will occur at the next local elections. It’s inevitable considering the age profile of the current county councillors.

Michael Kilcoyne may look to hang up the cap in Castlebar, after several successful poll-topping outings.

Kilcoyne leads the technical group and has been a consistent voice for many in the area, but time waits for no man, and it’s clear the two governing parties aim to make hay in Castlebar.

Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael plan to utilise their largesse and party machine as a clear advantage to help their local area representatives, a convoluted title for the anointed to be in place well ahead of polling time.

Fianna Fáil may well have three newcomers come 2029 with their names on the ballot, from political royalty and sporting life, but whether the anointed can make names for themselves in the meantime will be fascinating.

Local elections are almost impossible to move the needle for new names. It took Harry Barrett an exhaustive foray and unrelenting campaign to sweat until the early hours of counting.

Stephen Kerr, who will improve upon his almost 900 first preference votes, if still interested in running, will be in a solid position to win a seat.

There will be another independent in position come the next elections in Castlebar, if an expulsion or freezing out occurs for Blackie Gavin in the coming weeks and months. He will certainly think long and hard about running under an independent heading.

The tide is flowing towards such votes and the goodwill Blackie has garnered after decades on the council, delivering for people, his vote has often transcended party lines.

Hubris may be upon those in Fianna Fáil who believe recent opinion polls so far out from any election, but it’s a party right to think favourably upon itself.

Sinn Féin, despite its national growth, struggle to conjure up a candidate capable of winning a seat in the Castlebar district. An area Rose Conway-Walsh feels is her backyard, considering her family ties to the county town.

Their story in Erris tells of a cautionary tale, the difficulties a solid candidate like Rosaleen Lally had in unseating the incumbents in the Belmullet local election area.

Essentially, when sitting councillors can turn on and off the taps of GMA funding at will, it’s near impossible to break through, unless you have the blessing of the old guard and are set to replace an outgoing member of the council.

Fine Gael may yet see their representation in Castlebar shrink to a sole sitting councillor if opinion polls hold.

As it is, Donna Sheridan as cathaoirleach can enjoy the position as the first female leader of the Castlebar Municipal District but she too will be under pressure come 2029, like she was in 2024 and also during her inaugural run.

Ger Deere is as sure as anyone can be in politics but whether he fancies another five years after this term is another thing. The same could be said for his fellow Fine Gael colleague Cyril Burke.

The most consistent refrain from speaking to politicians of late is how politics has changed, and not for the better. It’s a nasty game. Each and every one involved knows that, it’s a blood sport after all, but the online vitriol and personal attacks extending to politicians families is new and unsavoury.

Many Blueshirts may look at Michael Ring’s joie de vivre and think they may fancy themselves a slice of retirement.

The coming months will conjure intrigue, but the county town conundrum is the next to solve and will be a top priority for the Taoiseach’s party. Grab a handle of Castlebar once again from the bottom up and then a solid foray toward a general election is next.

There can’t be many other areas where Fianna Fáil are lagging and in disarray like they are in the heart of Mayo.

The party strategists have resurrected a party from an almost fatal KO in 2011 to recent successes, and they’ll fancy a crack at rebuilding Castlebar with new faces preparing to gallop already.

Their time to work begins now, to commence as a councillor before an election and without any payment, to knock on doors and hear concerns, get involved with clubs and put the face out there on social media on a consistent basis in the hopes of a future hoist and a chance to take the reins of the largest party nationally, in the largest town locally.