The unthinkable: Three Connaught sides going out of championship next weekend?
by John Melvin
UNLIKELY, but possible.
Connaught could have no team remaining in the All-Ireland football championship knockout phase following this weekend’s third and final round of the Group stages.
Three are left standing in what has become a lottery - Galway, Mayo and Roscommon - but the most vulnerable counties are Mayo and Roscommon, both are under huge pressure to remain in the race for Sam.
Galway could be relying on some leniency from Armagh having bagged just one point from what was a lucky draw against Derry in Group 4 and it all depends on what team Kieran McGeeney sends to Breffni Park in Cavan as Armagh have already qualified as group winners and chances are the defending Ulster and All-Ireland champions will be holding back as they bid to concentrate on the bigger picture.
However, battling for survival in the same group are Derry who need to beat Dublin which would put them on three points, a draw against Derry would be sufficient to see Dublin survive but, should they lose, then the Dubs are gone.
Mayo have to beat or draw with Donegal to get one of the three places in the knockout stages.
The only other chance they would have is if Cavan were cause an upset and beat Tyrone in this group, then Tyrone would be gone and Mayo, even if losing to Donegal, would survive on the basis of their head-to-head with Tyrone.
Were Mayo to beat Donegal, and Tyrone beat Cavan, Jim McGuinness’s team would be still in the mix on their head-to-head win over Cavan.
However, if Mayo were to lose to Donegal and Cavan lose to Donegal, Mayo would be out of the championship.
The Rossies are in deep trouble.
With just a point in the bag as they face a Cork team who are even in worse bother having lost both their opening two group games to Kerry and Meath respectively, they would at least need to share the spoils with Cork to survive.
A Cork win would see Roscommon go out as Kerry and Meath are already through from this group, although the winner of the group has yet to be decided and that looks like it will be Kerry who remain unbeaten and face Meath who are on three points having drawn with Roscommon and beaten Cork.
I’d give Roscommon a chance to build on that great performance which earned them that draw against Meath
Group 3 sees Down and Monaghan already through with Louth and Clare, both without a win, fighting for that third place and you have to fancy Louth to make the cut at the expense of Clare.
Aiden O’Shea is the only remaining member of the 2012 Mayo team which lost to Donegal in the All-Ireland Final (2-11 to 0-13).
Donegal retain two of that side - Michael Murphy and Patrick McBrearty - Murphy picking up the Man of the Match at 23 years of age all of 13 years ago.
It was Jim McGuinness’s first and only All-Ireland win as a manager, while James Horan was the Mayo manager.