The figures don't lie as Mayo's housing crisis gets worse by the day

There’s something almost comforting about the predictability of a pothole.

You know it’ll still be there next week, you know who is to blame, and no one’s going to pretend it’s part of a strategic plan.

But at the end of the day those in power will attempt to make it look like they can get it resolved.

The same can’t be said for housing in Mayo, where unpredictability has become the only constant and last year’s figures told a worrying tale.

Take Ballina, for example.

In 2023, new home delivery was abysmal, among the lowest in the county.

Fast forward to 2025, and the north Mayo town is suddenly leading the charts for projected housing completions. It’s a whiplash turnaround, but a welcome one for councillors fielding desperate calls from constituents.

The Ballina Municipal District has seen a sharp upswing in activity.

Significant schemes in Crossmolina and new momentum on the Killala Road are helping reverse last year’s stagnation.

Local Seanad representation is also moving the needle, the Land Development Agency recently told Senator Mark Duffy they’re open to repurposing a formerly industrial-zoned site just outside town, potentially delivering over 200 homes.

It’s an ideal in-fill location, sandwiched between existing residential development and key services, just beyond the Gurteens roundabout before St. Patrick’s Church.

But as Ballina shows signs of revival, Castlebar and Westport are telling a different story.

What once looked like stable progress has slowed noticeably. Planning applications in rural areas are also on the decline.

The absence of major, ambitious projects in west Mayo is raising concern among local representatives who know exactly what an undersupplied market means for their constituents.

To make matters worse, it’s becoming harder to even track how bad the situation is.

Since November, coincidentally just before the general election the CSO has stopped releasing granular housing data by electoral area.

Where you could once check your townland’s pace of development, Mayo is now lumped into a broad “West” region with Galway and Roscommon.

Galway City’s urban surge warps the whole dataset, obscuring Mayo’s actual performance, never mind allowing you to read how Belmullet compares to Swinford.

Independent Councillor Michael Kilcoyne, a member of the Housing Strategic Policy Committee, doesn’t mince his words in relation to the situation, describing it as “harrowing.”

As the pressure builds, so too does the fallout, rent reviews had been landing in tenants’ mail boxes since winter, as landlords rush to hike prices before new Rent Pressure Zone rules take effect.

Meanwhile, short-term letting rules have tightened, at least on paper.

Under the new national RPZ regime, homeowners can only rent their entire home for up to 90 days a year without planning permission and only if it’s their principal private residence.

But enforcement remains a farce. National reports suggest senior government figures already anticipate widespread non-compliance.

Laws are being passed with full knowledge they won’t be followed. It’s the legislative equivalent of asking someone not to speed because the speed camera’s out of batteries.

If lawmakers don’t believe in their own rules, how can they expect the public to?

Yes, penalties technically exist. But few expect to see them imposed. Dun Laoghaire–Rathdown County Council outlines the sanctions clearly as it is one of the first areas in the country first placed under a Rent Pressure Zone back in 2016.

Lesser offences, like non-compliance with short-term letting rules, carry a maximum penalty of €5,000 or six months' imprisonment or both.

Continued non-compliance brings additional daily fines of up to €1,500.

It seems like music to the ears of the aforementioned Housing SPC who formulated a plan to tax holiday home owners, their non-compliance in terms of a lack of planning applications can be reported now, not just in Westport and Castlebar but across the whole county.

The remaining quandary is that monies raised will go to the “blackhole” of Mayo County Council as the local authority is responsible for enforcing planning, chair of that prescient SPC, Peter Flynn’s proposal to ring-fence it in each local electoral area may not be possible, but you can be sure it will be a point of discussion very soon.

Meanwhile, on the national stage, the outlook isn’t much better.

Minister for Housing James Browne has already admitted the government won’t meet its 2025 housing target of 41,000 new homes. Current estimates fall closer to 34,000.

Speaking on Newstalk, Browne said: “The challenge we have this year is we’re coming off a much lower base from last year than was expected. 41,000 is not realistic.

"I’m not interested in predictions, I’m interested in delivery. We need to move from 30,000 to 50,000, to 60,000 homes, 40,000 isn’t even close to enough.”

That might be the most honest thing anyone in government has said about housing in years.