A Mayo Question: Could a FG change of leadership be in the offing?
Party grassroots already rumbling about a successor to Harris
A presidential race like no other will begin this autumn, as Fine Gael TDs, senators and former colleagues have rowed in behind former Cavan–Monaghan deputy Heather Humphreys as the heir to Mairead McGuinness’ candidacy.
Yet, within Fine Gael, rumblings suggest this campaign will be entirely different to the general election one led by their fresh, energetic leader, Simon Harris, last year.
After Leo Varadkar’s departure in March 2024, Fine Gael held the narrative tightly and crowned Harris as successor without a contest.
He was seen as the only man for the job.
Despite other names being floated, it always seemed destined to fall to him.
Then came the shift at the doors during the local and European elections in June. Opposition councillors instantly noticed how receptions changed.
Under Leo, people were disgruntled and fed up.
With Harris, there was a lift: “Let’s see what he’s about, give him a chance, he’s fresh and energetic.”
The mood music could not have been more different. A year on, that optimism has evaporated.
The general election result was acceptable, and Harris sits almost comfortably as Tánaiste, but he has had a summer to forget.
He has faced sharp criticism from the mother of Private Seán Rooney, murdered in Lebanon, and from the parents of Harvey Morrison Sherratt, who died after years on a scoliosis waiting list.
For Heather Humphreys, now poised to carry the Fine Gael presidential bid, keeping Harris at arm’s length is the plan.
The party wants no crossover, and that separation will serve her campaign well.
Harris earned a reputation as steady on the campaign trail, but just two years into his leadership the party seems eager to shelve him.
They want to keep him away from the presidential race, the only route to a Fine Gael Áras candidate.
The media’s perception of Harris has also shifted. What once passed as energy and bravado is now dismissed as bluster.
He has been labelled as a politician without substance, one who delivered little. Now, as leader, it is all catching up.
There is nowhere to hide when you lead a major party, and for a man who once bounced from issue to issue, the exposure is unforgiving. Few colleagues have stepped up either. Summertime usually gives governments a lift in the polls, as the public barely notices them.
This year, people are noticing Harris too much. The more they see, the more irritated they become. Even something as simple as a photo at an Oasis concert caused backlash.
Fine Gael leaders are indeed humans too, much like Enda Kenny’s air guitar at Bruce Springsteen, Leo Varadkar at Kylie Minogue all raised eyebrows, but the visceral reaction to Harris being there showed his unpopularity is at its peak.
If there is a barometer of a FG leader enjoying a gig in their free time to the public reaction sentiment, then he is in hot water. In my view Harris could be dumped as quickly as he was elevated.
Loyalty matters in the party, and he is not seen as one of their own. A heave is inevitable.
He will not walk away like Varadkar, but Fine Gael will be wary of ousting him too soon. Removing him could destabilise the coalition and risk a general election, which no one in government wants.
Harris has tried to shore up weaknesses by taking on a foreign affairs brief, countering the criticism that he lacks international experience from his previous stint as Taoiseach.
But global crises mean his words and actions, however minor, will come under scrutiny.
His speech at the US ambassador’s residence on the eve of the Fourth of July, and his backing of a boycott, may haunt him.
In realpolitik, those stances will be seized upon, even if trade decisions were already out of his hands.
When Harris begins to endanger colleagues’ seats in the run-up to a poll, like Varadkar once did, that is when he will be removed.
It will not be as swift or solemn as Varadkar’s exit, but it will come.
Fine Gael’s grassroots are already rumbling about a successor.