Everything you need to know about Mayo GAA's make-or-break weekend for top clubs

by Martin Carney, Mayo GAA's foremost columnist

THE moment of truth has arrived. That hour-long date with destiny that decides the fate of each team for 2025.

That round three fixture where the outcome determines whether or not they will have any further involvement in this year’s championship.

Excuses won’t be tolerated. It’s a case of getting onto the pitch and doing what is necessary to make sure your team is in the draw for the quarterfinals next week.

Quite simply, go out and show that you’re good enough.

As levels of clarity vary from group to group, maybe taking a more detailed individual look at each of the four is the way to go.

GROUP ONE

Group 1, featuring Crossmolina, Ballina, Garrymore and Ballyhaunis, is one that has provided some of the most competitive and thrilling contests this year.

Aspiring three-in-a-row contenders Ballina Stephenites, after a facile opening round win over Ballyhaunis, got a reality check when losing to Crossmolina Deel Rovers in the last round.

The Stephenites looked a little devoid of real purpose and gave the impression that this was a game where they thought the result would conform with expectation.

All-Ireland intermediate holders Crossmolina had other ideas and in putting Ballina to the sword, they paved the way for a mouthwatering round thre finale. Quite simply, it’s now a winner-takes-all scenario for Ballina in their clash with Garrymore, whereas a draw takes Garry' into the last eight.

In the other clash, I expect Crossmolina to get the better of Ballyhaunis who, though losing to Garrymore the last day, showed significant improvement from their opening day defeat to Ballina.

The cold facts are that the Stephenites have had their reality check. They will take lessons from the defeat to Crossmolina, improve significantly, and do enough to get the better of Garrymore. They should advance along with their neighbours.

GROUP TWO

Group 2 is equally spicy. Belmullet, unbeaten, are in the last eight but any one from Breaffy, Aghamore and Castlebar Mitchels can join them.

Of the three, Breaffy have matters in their own hands: win and they qualify. Knocking on the door for some time, now is the time for them to deliver.

Perhaps a draw could still be to their advantage, but that’s dependent on how the Mitchels v Aghamore game pans out.

Were Breaffy to lose and the other game end in a draw, matters would then come down to scoring difference.

A decisive result in the Mitchels v Aghamore game pitched alongside a Breaffy defeat would ensure the winners from this game advance with Belmullet.

Breaffy, I feel, lack the all-round strength to win so my guess is that Mitchels will accompany Belmullet into the quarterfinals.

GROUP THREE

As their places are already assured in the last eight, there is a danger to dismiss that Group 3 game between BallaghderReen and Ballintubber clash as of academic interest only.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Knowing that a home quarterfinal tie is the prize for finishing top of the group should ensure a full-blooded encounter when the sides meet in Garrymore this evening at 8 p.m.

Since 2010, between them they have captured the Moclair Cup on seven occasions and although it is five years since Ballintubber last were in the winner's enclosure, they have shown a renewed sense of urgency this year.

Much of this down to Diarmuid O’Connor’s form at centre-back where, flanked by Michael Plunkett and Bryan Walsh, he has rediscovered the verve that had been hampered by injury over the last few years. Jason Gibbons remains a real force in the middle but Cillian is yet to sparkle.

Ballintubber need big displays from the aforementioned as Ballagh' are ultra-competitive. Inspired by David McBrien, Seamus Cunniffe and David Drake, they mix good defending with forceful runs from deep.

Ballintubber will be aware of the need for discipline as the place-kicking accuracy of Kuba Callaghan was well advertised with his return of one goal and 10 points from frees in their game with Claremorris.

Ballintubber’s half-back unit have not only proved near impregnable, but have acted as a potent launching pad to their forwards. When all is done, I think they will do enough to prevail.

Sticking with this group, the loser of the Charlestown v Claremorris game face the prospect of further games to avoid demotion to the intermediate ranks next year.

Claremorris, with much promising talent to call on, may just be a year short from fully blossoming and look the more likely to have a fight on their hands to maintain senior status.

GROUP FOUR

Equally intriguing are the possibilities in Group 4. As matters stand, Knockmore, on three points, tops the table on points difference over Westport.

This is due in the main to their opening-day demolition job on Balla. Westport somehow forced a draw with Knockmore in the last round; managing to score three points with time practically up reflected very well on the character of Pat Holmes' side.

Their tie with Balla on Sunday in Munnelly Park at 1 p.m. is one of the most appealing games on offer.

Balla’s demolition job on Mayo Gaels in the last round will have energised them. Yet with Killian Kilkelly and Conal Dawson in form up front, Lee Keegan providing leadership at the back, and Rory Brickenden impressing in the middle, it is hard to see Westport losing.

Balla’s manager, Declan Sweeney, has seen it all before, however, and will have impressed on his team the possibilities if they approach this in the right frame of mind.

In the other tie, I fancy Knockmore to account for Mayo Gaels. Gaels will be perplexed at their poor performance in the derby game with Balla.

Coming out on the wrong side of a 12 points defeat was one that few saw coming. Like a few others, they will end the season fighting to secure their senior status.

Making predictions is simply a form of guesswork informed by recent history between teams and current footballing health.

With conditions due to worsen – strong winds and rain are forecast – pitches will get softer and the dynamics will change.

Form can go out the window and outcomes become less predictable.

Yet, let those who deserve to prevail.

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