Election fever is starting to grip the nation as Mayo awaits SF decision

by Dr. Richard Martin

I went on a date one time. Correction. We went on a few dates.

Her name was Aveline. She was French. A law student from Perpignan.

I was living in France at the time. Montpellier. 2009. I met her in the Irish bar one night and we arranged to meet the following week. She was beautiful. Like Sophia Loren. La Loren.

She didn’t speak English. My French was good but this was a real test. The first night we met I was hit with a rapid vapid wave of French coming at me.

Word after word. Wave after wave. Phrase after phrase. French slang. The little man in my brain was flat out running around the temporal lobe trying to return each serve.

The phonetics were different too. I was accustomed to pronouncing ‘Oui’ – we. She pronounced ‘Oui’ – way. It was kind of groovy. A bit more laidback and chilled. Her voice had that swampy bass feel on Come Together. Groovy. Real groovy.

At some point the conversation shifted to Sarkozy and Carla Bruni. I didn’t know much about him. I just knew he was the French President and she was his wife. I just threw the name out there. Keep the conversation flowing.

The minute the name was mentioned she went bananas. He was this, that and the other and Bruni was worse again. The grooviness was gone out the window and she was animated like a feral cat. Sure what could I do? I hadn’t a clue, I’d no meaningful interest in Irish politics at the time, never mind French.

I just went along with it and kept nodding the head and agreed and agreed. Oauhh. Ouahh. I made out like I was the Irish Chairman Mao. Montpellier is a student city and a hotbed of left politics. I tell you one thing.

She was a passionate woman. After meeting someone like that, you’d be high as a kite. It was my first education in French politics and their political system. In France they have excellent public services because they have a strong left. They don’t compromise on equality.

We met a few more times at the Place de la Comédie after that but we went our separate ways in the finish. Sin a bhfuil. Life goes on. Count your blessings.

I’ve thought about her more than once lately. Our political system is different and the Irish presidency is largely a ceremonial role.

The real power is vested in Dáil Eireann and the fifth floor of government buildings. The Taoiseach calls the shots.

At the end of the day is it really important? Who gets the presidency? Who gets to move into the Aras for a few years? Or is it just a cushy little number?

It is important. Michael D has represented us on the world stage with dignity and respect. His time is coming to an end, so who are the main contenders?

The opinion polls between the three main parties are much of a muchness. The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A (July 2025) poll has FF at 22%, FG at 17% and SF at 22%. Independents/Others are at 22%. It’s all very tight.

From a punting perspective, as I write, looking at the Betfair exchange and other bookmaking firms. Heather Humphreys is the frontrunner with odds of 13/8 with implied probability of 38.8% chance of winning.

Catherine Connolly is at 5/2 with implied probability of 28.6% chance of winning. Jim Gavin is in third place at 4/1 with implied probability of 20% chance of winning.

Mary Lou is at 12/1 and Rose Conway Walsh is at 16/1 with implied probability of 5.9% of winning.

All this tells us is that right now the money in the gambling firms is following Humphreys. Right now, the only two guaranteed candidates are Humphreys and Connolly. The others aren’t confirmed and are speculative.

Heather Humphreys is the FG candidate. Mairead McGuinness had to pull out of the race due to personal health issues. Amazingly, FG have never held the Presidential office.

This time they feel they have the candidate and the momentum. FG have always felt a moral superiority in relation to all the other parties. Guardians and protectors of the state. The law and order party. Whiter than white. Pure as the driven snow.

FF has always dominated the Aras, much to the irritation of FG. Secretly, it has always galled and infuriated them that they’ve never sat in the Aras.

After all they founded and protected the state from the anti-treaty ingrates. And what did they get in return? A decades long front row view of FF dominance.

They may be in government together but the ‘love in’ can’t last forever. They both can’t ‘share’ the presidency. Will we see fractures and fault lines in the coming months? I hope so. It’s getting a bit too safe. A bit too nice.

Is Heather Humphreys a good candidate? I don’t know much about her because there isn’t a lot to know. For starters she’s doesn’t have the ‘star’ quality that Micheal D and Mary McAleese have.

She was a TD representing the Cavan Monaghan constituency from 2011 to 2024 which is relatively brief time period in Dáil Eireann.

She became a cabinet minister in a reshuffle in 2014, and held the Arts, Heritage and Gaeltacht portfolio until she was appointed the Minister for Social Protection in 2020 by Micheal Martin in the first FF-FG coalition government. She was a cabinet minister but she wasn’t a major national player. A relative minor.

Her father was a member of the Orange Order. Her grandfather signed the Ulster Covenant in 1912 opposing Home Rule. In 2016, she announced she was an Irish Republican.

In the lead up to the commemorations to the Easter Rising she stated: "Given my background as a Protestant and an Ulsterwoman who is a proud Irish republican, I appreciate the need to respect the differing traditions on this island."

Hmmmm. Fair enough. I find it hard to swallow that one. When I think of Heather Humphreys I can’t help but think of the 12th and the annual display of triumphalism and sectarianism of the Orange Order.

It would make me deeply uncomfortable to see her reside in Áras an Uachtaráin. It would, in my view, be a retrograde step for Irish unity and equality.

Jim Gavin is being touted as the FF candidate. He would be very competitive. He managed the Dublin team to six All-Irelands.

His parents are both from Clare. Geography counts. He is based in Dublin the others aren’t. Dublin will vote for him. For that alone he’s worth having on the ticket. His GAA and army background mean he will connect with the masses across the country. If he is the candidate. My feeling is he’ll win.

Bertie is a non-runner. Too many people got hurt when the country lost its economic sovereignty in 2010. The Bertie led FF governments of the early noughties made disastrous decisions which lead to later economic ruination. Sean Lemass he was not.

Micheal Martin doesn’t want him. Too much work has gone into rebranding FF after the wipe-out of 2011 and seeing Bertie’s face on posters again will inevitably reopen old wounds.

FF are the largest party in the Dáil with 48 seats and they want to keep it that way. Wheeling Bertie out center stage will lead to inevitable awkward questions.

FF have moved away from all of that. The brand has been rehabilitated and given a fresh gloss of paint. Bertie is just too much of a gamble, but Billy Kelleher would be a safe pair of hands, if he gets the nod.

Will Catherine Connolly make it? It all depends on who runs for SF. If Mary Lou is the candidate she will have the Dublin vote. Catherine Connolly has no party machine worth speaking of. Even in Galway city, her home turf, Mairead Farrell could lead a competitive campaign against her on behalf of SF.

I think SF will defeat Catherine Connolly. They have a nationwide party machine. If they defeat her, her transfers will go come back to the SF candidate – which is likely to be Rose Conway Walsh.

From my perspective RCW would be a good choice. An excellent candidate. A very experienced politician. Educated. Intelligent. Articulate. Fair.

A genuine decent person. She has no ties to the Provisional IRA, so ergo, no awkward questions on the campaign trail. Her politics is mainly focused on social issues. The health service, housing, rent and so on. I see her as someone with a strong nationalist ideology but I wouldn’t see her as a republican in the Blaney/Haughey mould.

Put bluntly, I want to see her run. And I want to see her win. We back our own, that’s it. The county would get out in force behind her. However, there’s a twist in the tail. If everything came to pass and she left Dáil Eireann and landed in the Aras. What happens next?

A by-election. All the prospective candidates are watching and wondering. Is this the golden opportunity. Patsy. Mark Duffy. Gaughan? Mulroy? And a SF candidate of course – Gerry Murray? Hugh Armstrong? Oh what fun we would have.

There’s the dreaming. Here’s the reality. There’s a few crucial elements against her. Geography and transfers. A Dublin candidate has the capital city behind him or her. That’s a huge advantage.

The big question is can she persuade enough of the FF electorate across the country to ‘lend’ the vote. Who will FF give their transfers to? Humphries or RCW? That’s the big unknown. The Lynch wing of FF loathe SF.

Another big unknown is the youth of Ireland. I can’t see them coming out voting for the status quo.

My heart says RCW but my head says Jim Gavin. He just holds too many aces. But RCW will never know unless she goes for it.

My advice? Go for it. À vaincre sans peril, on triumphe sans gloire. I’ve often wondered where Aveline ended up. Here’s a solid bet.

If she was voting in the coming election she’d vote RCW straight down the line. She’d be right too you know.