Mayo analysis: Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the fairest of them all?
Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the fairest of them all?
Jim Gavin? Heather Humphreys? Catherine Connolly?
As the time moves inexorably forward we are getting closer to the witching hour of Friday, October 24. The country will go to the polls and back their candidate.
There will only be one winner. The winner takes it all. A grand house in the Phoenix Park. A €250,000 yearly salary. Front row tickets on All-Ireland final day.
The losers go home and dress their wounds.
Politics is a cruel business. A place finish is a blow. A real blow.
Jim Gavin is the bookies' favourite. Currently evens with Paddy Power but the race isn’t run yet. Jim knows this isn’t over until he is having his Christmas turkey in the Aras.
Brian Lenihan Sr was an unbackable favourite in the lead-up to the 1990 presidential election. All the fences were jumped and all he had to do was canter to the finish line and somehow, someway he and FF contrived to lose that election.
His past came back to haunt him. He won the first preference vote but was defeated by Mary Robinson on transfers.
The controversy all stemmed from a phone call he made to Patrick Hillary in 1982.
Garret Fitzgerald was the then leader of FG and his government collapsed under the calamitous error of trying to impose VAT on children’s shoes.
As leader of FG and Taoiseach he asked the President (Patrick Hillary) to dissolve the Dáil, which he did. However, if Patrick Hillary had refused to dissolve the Dáil, Charlie Haughey, as leader of the opposition, could’ve formed an alternative government.
Patrick Hillary was a former FF cabinet colleague of Haughey and Lenihan. It transpired that Brian Lenihan rang the Aras on the night in question on numerous occasions trying to persuade/pressure Patrick Hillary to prevent a dissolution of the Dáil. Patrick Hillary dismissed these overtures out of hand and a general election was called.
Of course when the 1990 campaign started in earnest the matter was brought up on national TV and Lenihan declared that he had “no hand, act or part” to play in trying to pressure the then President.
He was trapped in a lie. Inevitably, a recording surfaced where he admitted to a journalist that he did in fact ring the Aras on the night in question.
The campaign degenerated into chaos and became a circus. He foolishly went on national TV, threw away the shovel and brought in a digger to make an even bigger hole.
He uttered the immortal phrase “on mature reflection” and continued to defend his position. For a politician, being trapped in a lie is the kiss of death.
The whole drama took a further deeper twist. The opposition smelled blood and put down a motion of no confidence in the government.
The PDs were in government with FF at the time and they threatened to support the motion and pull out of government unless Lenihan was sacked.
Haughey buckled and betrayed his old friend and comrade. Charlie wasn’t going to leave the fifth floor of Leinster House for no-one. Friend or foe.
Their friendship stretched back over decades. Politics is not for the faint of heart. If you want a friend, buy a puppy.
A letter of resignation was drafted by Haughey which, of course, Lenihan refused to sign. This forced Haughey’s hand and he was dismissed from government by none other than an unwilling Patrick Hillary (which he was constitutionally obliged to do).
In a short space of time we had the bizarre situation where the FF presidential candidate was dismissed from the front bench by his own party leader and friend. It was a series of tragic events and a good man was torn asunder.
A simple admission at the outset would’ve put the matter to bed. Lenihan Sr was by far and away the most popular deputy in the Dáil across all political divides. A decent man. He was the first prominent FF politician to speak at the annual commemoration to Michael Collins at Béal na Bláth. He was the greatest president we never had.
Of course, the chain of events didn’t stop there. Mary Robinson became president but the FF party was rocked and disgusted by Haughey’s lack of loyalty to his old friend.
They felt that the PDs should’ve been faced head on in the Dáil floor and had their bluff called. To turn his back on his old friend to protect his own interests sickened the party faithful.
It was clear that Haughey was intoxicated and enthralled by power to the exclusion of anything else. Power corrupts and corrupts absolutely.
Lenihan’s doomed campaign marked the beginning of the end of Haughey’s tenure also. It set in motion the wheels of change.
Powerful figures like Flynn and Reynolds were alienated and Haughey found himself alone at the top. Soon after a heave was mounted and Reynolds became leader in early 1992.
Haughey and Lenihan were gone. Finito. Yesterday’s men. Both titans of Irish politics.
Nothing can prepare you for national frontline politics. You sink or swim and if you can’t handle the heat in the kitchen get out of the kitchen. Any slip up or faux pas is scrutinised with forensic detail.
Jim Gavin will know all this of course. As manager of the Dublin team he proved himself to be a savvy and adept media operator and pays meticulous attention to detail. FF want the Aras. End of. It’s Gavin’s to lose.
If FG were to win it would be daylight robbery. But there are no thieves in FG. FG don’t do theft or dirty politics. They’re clean, above board and will fight a clean fight.
Like Lenihan, the only person that can beat Jim Gavin is himself.
If and when Heather Humphreys inevitably loses it will be a tremendous blow to the party faithful. They have become accustomed to high office. Being in government for 14 years and counting is unchartered water for FG.
They are facing a difficult period ahead. It’s inevitable. The electorate get tired of looking at the same faces.
Simon Harris has experienced a torrid time of late. The death of nine year old Harvey Morrison Sherratt in July has made his position untenable. As Minister for Health in 2017, Simon Harris pledged that no child would wait for more than four months for scoliosis treatment.
Harvey had scoliosis and spina bifida and had to wait for years for treatment. He waited for years for surgery to alleviate the curvature in his spine. The curvature went from 75 degrees to 130 degrees. How that young child suffered.
In the end the surgery was performed late last year but it was too late. His spine was irreparably damaged and the curvature could not be corrected.
And Simon Harris wants us to vote for Heather Humphreys?
The number one rule in life is you don’t let people down. And FG have shown us over the past decade that they do.
They’re out of touch. They have demonstrably shown time and again that they cannot cope with the housing and rental crisis.
They have no new ideas or solutions.
It’s time they got the door. This presidential election is a good place to start.
Snow White was woken from a deep sleep by her prince charming, but Irish politics isn’t a place for fairy tales and love stories.
All political careers end in failure. A blizzard of snow is headed in the direction of FG and they have no place to hide. The way I see it? Right now, a vote for FG is a vote wasted.