A fundamental election question: Has SF pushed FF and FG even closer together?

by Dr. Richard Martin

We have our candidates. Jim Gavin (Fianna Fáil), Heather Humphreys (Fine Gael) and Catherine Connolly (Independent).

Sinn Féin declined to field a candidate. Instead, they have decided to support Catherine Connolly.

Why? The answer is multi-fold.

The only candidates south of the border who would have had the profile to run and compete with FF and FG were Mary Lou and Pearse Doherty.

Even if they had contested, it’s unlikely they’d be elected. The cross party transfers between the two civil war parties make it virtually impossible to win.

A strange voting phenomenon has arisen over the past decade. Die-hard, old school FF and FG voters who used to loathe each other are now swapping transfers at the ballot box, just to block SF.

It’s not that they like each other. In fact FG diehards will never forgive FF for the collapse of the Irish economy in 2008, but in the end they just want to block the rise of SF at all costs.

Their mutual mistrust and fear of SF has actually healed the wounds of the civil war. SF forced them into bed with each other.

The gradual and inexorable rise of SF over the past 25 years has had profound consequences on Irish public life, even though they have never attained the reins of power themselves.

After the general election of 1997, SF only had one TD in Dáil Éireann. Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin was their only representative in our national chamber.

Now, after the general election of 2024, they have 39 TDs in Dáil Éireann and what is totally remarkable is that post-election, neither FF nor FG had any inclination to go into government with them.

Through a huge mandate and weight of numbers, SF have forced the civil war parties to do the unthinkable and work together and what is more remarkable is that the last coalition government between FF and FG worked.

It lasted the full five-year term. Both FF and FG knew that if it were to collapse it would only make SF stronger.

A confidence and supply arrangement was put in place after the general election of 2016 and in 2020 they went one step further and formed a government together. And now it seems that in the eyes of the electorate there isn’t much in the difference between them at all.

The origins of the signing of the Anglo Irish Agreement in 1985 were rooted in the same fear and mistrust of SF.

It was unthinkable for Margaret Thatcher, of all people, to sit down with an Irish Taoiseach and sign a bilateral treaty, but in the end she did. Whitehall was motivated to sign the treaty in order to block SF in the north.

She wanted to persuade the nationalists north of the border to support democratic nationalists like John Hume and Seamus Mallon instead of a Sinn Féin led by Gerry Adams, a party which had made huge electoral gains after the Hunger Strikes of 1980.

Politics and history is complex and nuanced. Perhaps, SF’s real motivation is not suffering a humiliating setback in the presidential election.

If Mary Lou were to run and be defeated it would make her leadership of the party questionable and perhaps untenable.

It’s likely her sole focus is on becoming the first female Taoiseach, which is admirable. But she and the party know that her running for president and losing would be a hammer blow.

Secondly, if SF had run a candidate, it would split the left vote for Catherine Connolly. In fact, it wasn't a given that their candidate would even beat Catherine Connolly.

It would be one thing to lose out to the civil war parties but losing to an independent with no party machine would be a dreadful humiliation.

It begs the question, do SF have the strength in depth that’s required to take the next step towards governance? I’m not convinced.

SF, it seems, are playing a deeper game. Or they think they are. In their eyes, the real prize is the fifth floor of Leinster House. Running the country. That has always been the endgame. Since the fateful Ard Fheis in the Mansion House in 1985, when they decided to end abstentionism and enter Leinster House.

Once the republican leadership made that decision, the game was up.

Power. Real power is in their grasp. The civil war parties cannot get to grips with the housing and rental crisis. It’s only a matter of when not if and SF want to be ready and prepared for the next general election.

They don’t want to go into government with FF or FG. They would much rather a left umbrella where they ultimately call the shots. This is why they are supporting Catherine Connolly.

They are telling People Before Profit, Labour and the Social Democrats and other assorted fringe TDs that they want to work with them.

We want an alternative and let’s work together and get that crowd out. SF are, in effect, playing footsie with their playmates in the opposition benches. And it seems their playmates like it. It is a de facto situation that SF are the leaders of the opposition and the other parties seem willing to accept it.

It was readily apparent when the Dáil was convened to form a new government earlier this year. All hell broke loose in the chamber when Lowry became the Kingmaker and brought FF and FG together once more.

The Moriarty Tribunal findings on Lowry's past financial dealings won’t ever go away. The opposition smelt blood, even though they knew deep down there was no alternative for government formation. And hey, let’s face it, SF is far from squeaky clean itself.

When you’re pointing a finger there’s three pointing back. Just saying. After an afternoon of yahooing at the Ceann Comhairle, which at intervals looked like bullying and misogyny, the opposition parties gathered on the plinth outside Leinster House. Mary Lou was front and centre. Bacik and others knew their place and stood deferentially behind her.

In the end there will be an end. There will be a presidential campaign and an election. One winner and a few losers.

SF have chosen the road of spectating instead of contesting. It’s somewhat reminiscent of the slogans which were daubed across west Belfast in August of 1969 when Catholics were burnt out of their homes on Bombay Street.

The slogans read IRA – I Ran Away, a reference to the IRA's failure to defend Catholic areas during the riots.

By not fielding a candidate are SF running from the fight or playing a political masterstroke which leads to power north and south of the border?

Only time will tell.