A Mayo View: Election is a referendum on Micheál Martin's leadership

Politics is the cruellest game, and, perhaps because presidential elections only come around every seven years, their campaigns are some of the nastiest sludge matches we ever get to see.

The media scrutiny is like nothing else. It is full-blooded, leaves no prisoners, and the role of president has become one about who can best handle the pressure.

Jim Gavin has already had to face down trolls. His attempts to get social media rumours scrubbed from sites have proven harder than ever.

Heather Humphreys has had to account for her attendance and her husband’s membership in an Orange lodge.

Catherine Connolly has been made to disavow everyone from former journalist Gemma O’Doherty to Clare Daly, Mick Wallace and even Hamas in an effort to test her suitability as Irish head of state.

Maria Steen’s failure to get onto the ballot was more likely down to her last-minute decision to throw her €20,000 designer Hermès bag into the ring than any cabal of undemocratic forces colluding against her, as some alleged.

The contest would have been stronger with her in it, or at least with someone representing her views, to give voters a broader choice.

But trying to secure four local authorities and 20 Oireachtas members at the eleventh hour was haphazard.

Attacks on Michael McDowell began early when it became clear Steen would not reach the required 20 nominations. The former PD’s missing signature became a point of contention, while her supporters’ behaviour online was castigated by others as a reason for her failure.

In truth, even Gareth Sheridan’s bid fell short with him beginning in April, which was viewed as late in the day, never mind Steen's August uprising.

We are now left with a three-horse race. With Sinn Féin backing Connolly and Steen unable to proceed, turnout is expected to hit record lows.

That is often described as a positive for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but that’s not quite true. Low turnout benefits incumbents, and neither of those parties has one in this contest. Michael D. Higgins departs having been elected in 2011 off the back of an economic crisis and a nation reeling from a recession and experiencing austerity.

It is hard to be enthused by this campaign, or indeed by any of the candidates. Nothing yet jumps out as a defining narrative.

What is clear, though, is the significance of the race for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Neither of their candidates will be satisfied with the political posturing ahead of the budget. In a departure from previous years, we’ve heard very little, perhaps because there is little good to leak.

Yet no news looks like bad news for the public. We already know there will be little to tackle the cost of living, with rapidly rising energy costs and soaring food bills compounded by the never-ending housing crisis.

Heather Humphreys, the most politically astute of the government’s options, must surely be aware that the budget’s outcome will weigh heavily on public sentiment ahead of the vote next month.

Many voters, conscious of their lighter wallets and rising anxiety before an expensive Christmas, may well seize the opportunity to teach the government a lesson.

Jim Gavin enters the fray as the green-around-the-ears, retired Defence Forces member and GAA great. Yet the more the public see him, the less they seem to warm to him.

His brief media appearances have been unimpressive. He has already had to come out swinging on the Six One and found himself mealy-mouthed, appearing to describe a genocide as a military objective. Still, he is being billed as a guaranteed vote-winner across the capital.

But if Billy Kelleher’s result was read as a quasi-revolt against Micheál Martin’s imposition of Gavin, then a scenario in which Gavin finishes last would surely start the countdown clock on Martin’s departure.

Backbenchers have already made their views known, and grassroots Fianna Fáil members say they will not lift a finger for Gavin locally.

If that's the case, he will struggle outside his native Dublin.

However, if elected, Gavin would become the first Dublin-born president since Seán T. O’Kelly.

Micheál Martin will hope that, after 80 years, the country will decide it is long overdue.