Mayo Analysis: Connolly triumph has left SF with a renewed hunger for power

by Dr. Richard Martin

So that’s it. Catherine Connolly, the 10th President of the Republic of Ireland.

It was becoming very obvious from two weeks out that there was only going to be one winner. I’m one of the handful that didn’t vote for her but that’s democracy. The people spoke.

I went to the TF early to survey the lay of the land. From above in the balcony I could see Ollie Armstrong (a close personal friend) from Knockmore tallying down below so down I went.

A prominent SF activist before it was fashionable to do so. Like Joe McHale, he has been with them on the long crusade towards government formation. I greeted him and complimented him on his Palestinian Keffiyah. I gave it to him as a gift a few years back.

His son Hugh is an accountant with An Post and represents Ireland at international level in athletics. I met him earlier this summer.

A SF activist like his father, if he is on the ballot paper for the locals in a few years' time he will be elected. Talent is talent, and you either have it or you don’t. And Hugh Armstrong has it in spades.

His only weakness is he is in Rose Conway-Walsh’s backyard. Getting to the Dáil might be a bit tougher. Two into one doesn’t go, you know.

A boxful of votes was thrown on the counter and it was evident after 30 seconds what the outcome was. A landslide. Connolly No. 1. Ballot after ballot.

Jim Higgins was on my immediate right watching the process unfold. A gentleman.

What was striking was the volume of spoilt ballots. I turned to Jim and he was sanguine in defeat.

He was frustrated with the budget and felt it didn’t offer enough to the ordinary public. He could feel the mood of people canvassing over the past few weeks. They were polite but distant. Never a good sign. The ballot box was waiting to explode with left wing grenades.

In Mayo, of the votes cast 14% were spoilt. Of the votes which weren’t spoilt Catherine Connolly took 65% of the vote, Heather Humphrey 28% and Jim Gavin 7%. There was a turnout of 36%, which is equally alarming.

Given the woeful turnout and the huge percentage of spoilt votes it’s fair to say that there is a huge amount of disaffection and anger amongst the general populace. The core issue is that people didn’t feel the three candidates on the ballot paper speak for them.

Maria Steen was blocked from being on the ballot paper. Would she have won? It’s debatable, but she would’ve been competitive. Given her Catholic, conservative and traditional views she would’ve received huge support from middle Ireland.

Despite the changes in Irish society over the past decades, people still go to mass, they still get baptised and a lot of people voted against marriage equality and not to repeal the 8th. And they all have a voice and a vote.

She also would’ve struck a chord in the immigration debate. People feel disenfranchised and there is huge anger over the housing and rental crisis but also the vast profits that private individuals are reaping from IPAS centres all over the island.

The recent riots in Dublin would’ve only propelled her campaign forward over the closing days.

I still think Catherine Connolly would’ve won it, but the potential transfers of Heather Humphreys to Maria Steen would’ve made the day a contest.

For starters, there would’ve been a far greater turnout. Heather Humphreys became a candidate by default and bravely stood forward when Mairead McGuinness bowed out. She showed loyalty to her party and dignity in defeat.

FG made a huge strategic error in not allowing Maria Steen into the ring and supporting her candidacy in a tacit way. It was their best way to block the powerful left alliance and through ineptitude, they failed to read the landscape.

FF were left with the embarrassing conundrum of a candidate on the ballot paper who bowed out weeks in advance. Why he was selected, no one will ever know but it has left Micheál Martin's position untenable. He is a political corpse.

FF need to move quickly and urgently and put this debacle behind them. Personally, I feel he should do the honourable thing and resign.

There was only one candidate for the job and that was Eamonn Ó Cuív. Here is a man with depth, wisdom, longevity and gravitas. No scandal or embarrassing tribunals. A track record of service to the state spanning 30 years.

He has what Catherine Connolly also possesses. Presidential bearing. And why wouldn’t he? His grandfather was President, Taoiseach and the architect of our state.

Micheál Martin showed no loyalty to the traditions and history of FF and in so doing the sword of Damocles is waiting to strike and Jim O’Callaghan is wielding it. It’s hard to feel sorry for him. A change is badly needed to restore confidence and pride in the jersey.

When I heard that SF had decided to not field a candidate and instead support Catherine Connolly, I thought it was an interesting gambit. If they won, they would succeed in uniting the left as one voting bloc and then setting a precedent for future elections.

The ultimate aim being future government formation minus the civil war establishment parties. If Catherine Connolly lost, their refusal to field a candidate would be seen as weak, indecisive and perhaps cowardly.

In the end, they calculated correctly. They read the mood of the people and the strength of the opposition candidates. By using their electoral machine to elect Catherine Connolly they have galvanised the left voting bloc.

SF are hungry. They are reminiscent of the old diehard FF party machine where party loyalty was absolute and unquestionable. I didn’t see or meet any civil war party canvassers.

On the Thursday before the election, I met my old friend and teacher Mona Munyikwa canvassing with a woman from north Mayo for Catherine Connolly.

Mona, like Ollie, has been with SF when no-one was with them. When SF represented less than 5% of the vote and had one TD in the Dáil. Her friend was not a member of SF but now they canvass together. They are prepared to set aside differences to block the establishment.

This election has created a new dimension in Irish politics. The left trounced the middle ground. However, the right was not represented. That will change in the local and general elections going forward. The core issues of housing, rent and immigration have not and will not subside before the next round of elections.

Irish politics is becoming more polarised between the extremes of left and right, and the centre will be squeezed. It is somewhat reminiscent of the dynamics of politics north of the border post GFA. The Ulster Unionist party and SDLP dominated the political scene. By 2007, the two extremes SF and DUP were the two main parties and have remained so ever since.

SF are prepared to play the long game and in those years between 1998 and 2007, their refusal to accept policing and decommission weapons created a tension which eventually crushed the middle centre ground parties.

They’re not stupid and Gerry Adams has proven umpteen times that he is the ultimate tactician and strategist. The titanic in the bathtub has been well and truly turned at this juncture. They’re a long way from the cages of Longkesh now.

If and when SF break through in the council elections, then we will know for definite that they are a force south of the border. Councillors have something no other politician has. Discretionary funding.

All the long term TDs need loyal councillors near them to spend money on potholes and what not. Annie May and Dara Calleary. Alan Dillon, Ger Deere and Cyril Burke. Micheal Ring and Gerry Coyle. One hand washes the other.

I accept the verdict. I may not like it. But, I accept it.

The democratic vote is sacrosanct and must prevail.