A tale of two Mayos is coming to the surface politically and socially

A tale of two Mayos appears to be emerging.

A great deal of anger was unleashed via the ballot box in the presidential election as voters used a free vote to express their frustration at the current government and the two dominant parties in power.

The government received a lashing from both directions. The unity of the left was apparent as the incumbency of Michael D. Higgins carried over.

People in this country like a president who appeals to their moral compass, but whether that translates into how they want day-to-day government policy directed via a general election is an entirely different matter.

The left will have its work cut out to maintain course. Indeed, the only relevant party of this newly unified left in rural and western seaboard counties is Sinn Féin.

Galway West will prove to be a fascinating race and will likely deliver another hammering for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Former Social Democrats member and Mayo native Eibhlín Seoighthe was heavily involved in Connolly’s campaign. With roots in Achill, the sitting councillor could be tempted to put her name forward as an independent.

She was the sole flagbearer of the party in the west. There was little to no presence elsewhere in the province; as a party, their focus remains on urban wins rather than expanding their footprint in rural regions.

The Labour Party will aim to make strides nationally on the back of these results.

Alan Kelly now stands as a lone figure within the party. Pauline O’Reilly’s moves ahead of the Galway West by-election will do her few favours within the Connolly camp, but the need for left-leaning parties in this constituency to do the heavy lifting for a unity candidate remains.

Galway West reads like an inverse of Mayo, a field dominated by left-leaning candidates.

Commentators have asked where Aontú’s surge in Mayo came from. The answer is clearer when you look at the field of candidates.

Paul Lawless had Stephen Kerr to send his transfers upon the Breaffy man’s elimination.

There was no field of left-leaning candidates in Mayo, besides Gerry Murray, whose geography aided Lawless, and the only other left candidate below Murray was People Before Profit-Solidarity and the Green Party, with a combined 3% of first preference votes.

The difference in Galway West is that many of the smaller left-unity groups can boost Sinn Féin’s prominence.

In Mayo, that is not the case; Sinn Féin’s footprint in the county remains limited, with a wider presence of strong left leaning candidates non-existent.

A closer look at the voters and those who spoiled their ballots tells its own story.

Councillor Harry Barrett called it 'a tale of two Mayos' at a recent council meeting when decrying the investment imbalance within the county.

He was tallying in Castlebar last Saturday week and noted rising frustration in boxes from Charlestown in particular, while areas in the Belmullet LEA and Swinford also showed unusually high numbers of spoiled votes.

Both LEAs have long histories of voter frustration. Little investment has come their way, and much of the prosperity seen in towns like Castlebar and Westport has failed to spread to the hinterland.

Our politicians at national level will continue to talk about balanced regional development when it comes to Dublin vs Mayo, but there is very little balance when it comes to the distribution of resources and investment within Mayo itself.

People in the Belmullet and Swinford LEAs feel left behind.

You can call them deplorables, deride or ridicule them at your peril.

But one thing is certain: they can no longer be ignored.

They are voters who bothered to vote and did so with a protest in mind. There is a groundswell of support among a growing section of Irish society for this right of centre anger vote.

This is a group that not only despises the governing duo but also detests Sinn Féin and other left-leaning parties.

Their numbers are still dwarfed by a hugely successful and historic support of Connolly as was seen by the count, that goes without saying, but the reason for detailing the spoil the vote movement is because it means we will see an emergence of a three-group vote.

Left-unity with Sinn Fein, Labour, Greens, PBP and Independents, government in the centre and Aontú, Independent Ireland, right leaning independents and micro parties.

It is this divide and split that will help Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael immeasurably when it comes to a general election. Their slogan of the centre holding may hold favour with the electorate with the fear of an alternative “coalition of chaos” presented to them.

Much of what we’ve seen growing online around issues at the CityWest Hotel in Saggart will have influenced their decision to spoil their ballot, alongside the recent budget, and continuing housing disaster.

Sinn Féin aims to corral the left unity into positing Irish unity as a solution for these matters. Deputy Rose Conway-Walsh believes those parties on the left have come a long way in terms of their stance on a border poll.

Back in Mayo, there is this rural algorithmically influenced voter, as shown by Kevin Cunningham’s analysis on working class Gen Z men being more likely to spoil their vote than others.

They have worked and worked hard but for a myriad of reasons feel that all of the ills of Ireland can be blamed on people who move to Ireland from elsewhere.

It’s a simplistic approach but one that will only grow further by the time the next general election rolls around.

This is a demographic more isolated than ever, young people socialise less and less and they’re ultimately angrier as a result.

The cat is out of the bag, and shifting trends are developing that will splinter the wholescale opposition vote.