Mayo minister Calleary tipped for finance portfolio when FF changes leadership
by Dr. Richard Martin
Jim O’Callaghan will be the next leader of FF. That’s not in dispute. The question is when.
Micheál Martin is a walking political corpse.
The report into Jim Gavin’s doomed presidential campaign was finally released amid much scrutiny.
The presidential election was held on November 24. Catherine Connolly was elected president with a landslide vote. Mind you, there were only three names on the ballot paper - Catherine Connolly, Heather Humphreys and Jim Gavin.
The anti-government, anti-establishment vote brought Catherine Connolly on a tsunami-like wave. And maybe to give her her due, she was the best candidate.
But the high percentage of spoiled votes cast a dark shadow over the political system.
The Jim Gavin campaign ended on October 5, a few weeks before polling day. I remember it well. All hell broke loose on social media. His name couldn’t be withdrawn from the ballot paper at this juncture.
Earlier that day Jim Gavin had appeared on The Week in Politics hosted by Áine Lawlor alongside the other two candidates.
An article by Fionnán Sheehan had appeared the previous day in the Irish Independent titled ‘Jim Gavin, the Celtic Tiger apartment he lost in the crash and a rent refund dispute’.
In the article Sheehan outlined in detail how a former tenant mistakenly and inadvertently paid Jim Gavin €3,500 by standing order and, when he sought the return of monies, Jim Gavin declined to pay it.
Later that day, the tenant contacted FF and told them about the situation and explained he had the documentation to prove his claims. It turns out the tenant was a widely respected journalist – Niall Donald. A perfect storm was brewing.
It was all set for a kamikaze showdown the following morning and Áine Lawlor inevitably asked Jim Gavin for a response. He fluffed and flapped and it was cringe-worthy viewing.
Like an elephant trying to swat a mosquito, he uttered the following memorable lines: “On that particular issue I don’t have all the information” and “I’m looking into it and I will deal with it with urgency.”
His credibility was shattered and the idea that he wanted to be president of a nation and reside in its premier address in the Phoenix Park, amidst a housing and rental crisis whilst he owed a tenant €3,500, was laughable. His goose was cooked and the race was run.
Grassroots FF across the island are still furious. It is a humiliation for the party. Why was this man selected? Was he a FF man for starters? Why weren’t other candidates considered?
Of course victory has a thousand fathers and failure is an orphan, but it was clearly evident to me that when the debates started, he was totally out of his depth.
My assumption was that as he was such a successful manager of Dublin GAA, that he must have incredible communication skills.
Mick O’Dwyer, Brian Coady, Ger Loughnane, Babs Keating, Kevin Heffernan, Jimmy McGuinness and a host of others were all successful managers across hurling and football and had (and in the case of Jimmy McGuinness have) brilliant communication skills.
Inspiring, passionate and charismatic. They all had an aura.
Jim Gavin just doesn’t have that, and in a campaign which is media focused and involves lots of debates on TV he was the last person you’d have in that arena.
He may have been a suitable candidate for a council election or a general election but those campaigns are fought on the ground, but for a novice to be thrown into a cut-throat media arena it was laughable to think he’d float and keep his head above water.
FF can create and issue reports but where is the common sense? When the FF background team met him, surely they should have been able to size his obvious deficits and realise quickly that they had the wrong man for the role.
Were they in such a hurry to block Bertie Ahern from running that they were willing to jump into bed with anyone?
I can understand why Micheál Martin didn’t want Bertie to run. Ireland lost its economic sovereignty as a result of Bertie’s stewardship. There’s no wriggling out of that.
His role in the Good Friday Agreement is largely overstated. Whitehall and the Provos were tired of 30 plus years of conflict. A deal had to be done.
In any case it was Haughey and Reynolds who made the hard yards in the decade previous. Putting Bertie on posters around the country would be an insult to the electorate.
As it stands the net cost to the taxpayer of the bank bailout is between €40 and 42 billion. For me Bertie couldn’t run and had a nerve to think he could.
The only FF candidate for the Áras was Éamon Ó Cuív. I find it hard to comprehend why he hasn’t played a more prominent role in public life in this country. I think it stems from jealousy.
Those in power in FF have always held him back. Michael Ring had much the same experience in FG. He would have been the perfect candidate.
An intellectual and a man of high integrity with flawless FF pedigree and not a hint of scandal or corruption. Saying he would’ve beaten Catherine Connolly is a big statement but he would’ve been more competitive.
In any case, report or no report, Micheál Martin’s credibility is shattered. As long as he remains as leader FF will suffer in the polls.
The one thing a TD worries about is retaining his or her seat. And like Lynch in 1979, if he doesn’t step aside, a vote of no confidence will be caused and he will be forced.
The FF backbenchers know the best chances of their own survival lie with Jim O’Callaghan.
Interestingly, where does that leave Dara Calleary? He won’t want to leave his cosy spending ministry in Social Protection anytime soon. There’s not much spending in Justice, but if Micheál Martin steps aside, it does mean he will go one more rung up the ladder.
Jack Chambers has dirtied his proverbial bib with the Jim Gavin fiasco and may have to spend some time in the wilderness. He has too.
The FF leadership was fully aware of the facts on the Saturday night before Jim Gavin went on national TV the following morning and tried to explain the situation away with wringling, wiggling hands and an incoherent explanation.
Leadership is about being decisive and sure footed. Once FF became fully aware of the facts the campaign had to be pulled straight away. It wasn’t. That’s where the core issue lies.
This debacle has cost FF in the region of €350,000 to €400,000. Another point of contention. The FF grassroots won’t rest until there is a change in leadership.
There are always winners and losers in elections. One of the by-products of the campaign is that in the near future we could have a Minister for Finance in Ballina.
There’s no one more deserving of it. After the way Dara Calleary was treated after Golfgate by Micheál Martin there is no-one more deserving of it.
Fate is not without irony. 2026 will be interesting.