Big political decisions on horizon for Mayo parties
by Dr. Richard Martin
Enough of the past.
There will be at least two new FF candidates on the ballot paper the next time.
If Al McDonnell decides to retire he will choose his own successor in Ballintubber – names are already being mentioned.
Caoilinn Gaughan, daughter of former Mayo TD Beverley Flynn, will, I expect, be on the ticket.
A council seat is just a stepping stone to her ultimate career trajectory.
We have a special talent coming through the ranks, and her future lies at the cabinet table.
I met a friend of mine over Christmas who was home from the States. He assured me that he will be returning from the States to vote for her.
That’s the Flynn vote. You can’t break them. And many have tried.
So who is going to fill the third seat?
Harry Gaughan? Why not?
Enda and Henry Kenny both ran for the council simultaneously. He’s currently studying Business and Law in UCD and is a capable young man.
Kieran Lavelle? The current chairman of the Castlebar Mitchels.
It’s the biggest sports club in the province and I’ve been hugely impressed with his stewardship. The 9’s festival has become a huge annual event. The Connacht Rugby game was a massive success.
He has good interpersonal skills and of course he’s been marinated in FF from root and acorn.
He’s from Snugboro. Between himself and the Gaughans/Flynns they could really challenge and kibosh Ger Deere’s vote in Islandeady and Snugboro.
If FF are serious they need to challenge Ger Deere and Michael Kilcoyne head on.
Deere had no resistance the last time and had it far too handy. He mopped up Islandeady in the absence of Eugene McCormack who ran in 2019.
Deere has the unique advantage over all the other candidates in the field. He’s aligned to a very slick constituency office.
When the Kenny era ended he became part of the Dillon machine. If you want to survive in politics you have to make shrewd decisions.
He’s also well known from his voluntary work with Tidy Towns.
At the FG convention prior to the 2019 local elections, Cyril Burke romped home with 95 votes and Deere came home with about 35 votes, behind Eugene McCormack. Third on the ticket. (Donna Sheridan was added later by party HQ).
Not a resounding vote of confidence, but through sheer hard work he has become one of the dominant unbackable councillors.
What about Barry Moran? A former Mayo inter-county player and highly successful in his chosen career. Formerly with Allergan and now with Hollister. He would be a strong candidate.
Would he break 1,100 votes? I think he’d be close enough. A fresh face and a very strong CV. His wife is from Balla. He’d poll strongly there.
His ambitions, however, could lie further than the council chamber.
The Flynns would not want to see him coming. He could eat into Cyril's support base also. They move in similar social circles.
But Cyril will hold. His vote is an old money blue vote that just needs a gentle reminder and canvass two weeks from polling day. He got a FPV of 1,358 the last time. It could increase or decrease by 50 votes. Who knows?
The bottom line is this. There has to be a council seat in the Mitchels.
If either Kieran Lavelle or Barry Moran were having a campaign launch in the morning there could be 30/40 odd people there from the Mitchels alone.
The GAA and Irish politics are joined at the hip. I’d be there. Firstly, as a columnist with The Connaught Telegraph, and secondly as a member of the club.
I want to see people from the club and town be successful in life. If you can’t help someone, don’t hinder them.
What about Daithí Gallagher? It’s hard to know if he’s interested. He didn’t attend the recent AGM of the FF party in the Welcome Inn.
He had famously told the delegates that they hadn’t seen the last of him when he lost the co-option contest against Martin McLoughlin in 2016.
He is an officer in the Mayo County Board but not in FF.
His grandfather, Denis, was a government minister for FF, but no other Gallagher has held elected office since. His FF DNA isn’t in doubt – his father, Denis, was the FF director of elections in the past.
The question is: Does he want it? Time will tell.
And finally, what about Sinn Féin?
The solution is simple. Local elections are local. There is a good argument for saying that winning a council seat is harder than winning a Dáil seat. They need to identify a young educated town candidate who, for example, had a grandfather in the Bacon Factory.
Parachuting outsiders into our town just won’t work. If they identify that person then they have a real fighting chance of taking a council seat. It took Harry Barrett nearly 20 years of trying to get elected and he’s only from up the road in Belmullet!
Three new fresh FF faces could and should be returned to the council in 2029. If that happens, some existing councillor will lose out.
There is a groundswell of anger amongst the FF hardliners around the town and district over Blackie's decision to defect after the locals. There will be a backlash.
If Blackie runs again it will be as an independent. In doing so, he could attract a new vote share to offset the loss in support from FF loyalists. It’s a tricky balancing act. Only he could pull it off.
As I see, it Blackie and Donna Sheridan look vulnerable and have it all to do to retain their seats.
I hope I’m wrong. Let’s see how it plays out. Plenty of time to go yet.
And my vote?
In the 2024 locals? It stayed on Castle Street.
Ah goddammit, I love politics.