Mercosur has driven a sense of despair into Mayo farming communities

If Ireland is the most pessimistic country in the world, Mayo is likeliest to be the second most pessimistic county in the world’s most pessimistic country index.

Negative feelings are natural during a cold, damp and grey winter when the only salvation is a warm open fire, a joy that you’re not allowed to have now thanks to the EU.

At least we have beef, a good wholesome steak from well fed Irish beef.

Well no, not that either now it seems. Well, what do we have?

A reactionary bout of populism unearthed from the Irish political mass like a Scandinavian couple on Room to Improve showcasing their geo thermal heating system in An Spideal.

Mercosur has dominated the discourse in the previous week, during a fascinating time when An Taoiseach Micheál Martin conducted a sleeveen mission to Beijing, exploring trade links with the Far-East superpower.

Chinese state media heralded the emerald isle as an ideal outpost of strategic importance, labelling Ireland as a complementary economy where they can make in-roads snuggled up between the US and Europe.

Martin spoke at length prior to his far-east trip about the importance of re-opening talks to trade Irish beef and dairy to China; the sector was hit with a 10% tariff in retaliation for the EU slapping a levy on Chinese imported EVs.

Again, it’s another tightrope for Ireland to navigate in Brussels when the interests of the trading bloc leaders in central Europe can often come at a cost to this island.

As per reporting in Reuters on Martin’s mission in China, once the under-fire Taoiseach landed, all talk of agri-food exports evaporated.

The Chinese welcomed discussions on AI, green technology and aircraft leasing.

Martin’s later social media posts and videos failed to highlight anything regarding beef or butter.

Our economy was initially built on just those goods, beer, beef and butter, but as Mercosur makes its way through the EU, a trade agreement more than 25 years in the making, Irish agriculture looks to be moving in the direction of our fishing sector.

The numbers just no longer add up in terms of its economic output, but what comes in its place is the interesting facet.

Currently, primary agriculture relates to 1% of Irish GDP, a metric that is grossly inflated by such international companies and factors of interest to the Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Our agri-food sector is stronger but only slightly, accounting for 8%. It is still undoubtedly an import factor to Irish exports, but as change comes with the inevitable conclusion of the Mercosur deal, rural Ireland in particular will need to be prepared.

The farming industry in Ireland has truly lost its weight. The delay in the Irish government in coming out to oppose Mercosur proved that precisely.

Other groups such as Chambers Ireland have been consistently calling on the government to support the deal. It’s a deal that is good for business and opens up the emerging South American market to Irish exporters - reducing 91% of tariffs on goods to be sent there.

Much of the narrative has concentrated on us importing lower-quality Brazilian beef but the benefits, we are told by business leaders and economists, will outweigh those negatives.

Their argument is based on the success of CETA, the EU trade deal with Canada that has benefited Irish exporters greatly.

Since the trade agreement Irish exports of goods to Canada grew by 355%, from €891 million in 2016 to €4 billion in 2024.

But stats and figures won’t butter the bread of those who feel an air of existential dread in their midst, a worrying creep that their way of life is going extinct.

Rural Ireland will look a strange place without farms or, more accurately, less small farms.

It’s difficult to imagine the continued survival of all related local shops and stores that rely on the farming trade to survive.

But it is precisely those rural farmers in Mayo who have known for some time that this was coming. They told their sons and daughters to go and get an education and warned them off farming. I know few farmers who encourage agricultural life for the next generation.

They lived the struggles and want what is best for their offspring.

It’s death by a thousand cut. What then can help to soften the blow, especially when their sons and daughters are many miles from home and working in accountancy firms far away from Mayo?

Minister Alan Dillon was happy to be out on the plinth in Leinster House last week, with a colossal package to announce to the nation.

Almost €5 billion in funds over the next five years for capital business investment projects, including €400 million for tourism.

Our front page last week carried news of a long awaited IDA project for the county town. But that number for investment into Irish tourism is seismic.

If you break it down per county it equates to just over €15 million per county.

Mayo received a little over €6 million for LEADER funding to put that into context.

Money is being pumped in to create the next generation of good, high-quality jobs as part of this package, but there is a fear by our politicians to actually tell the story or inform people of what is coming next and how best to adapt and it is in that vacuum that scaremongering and Chinese whispers grow legs.

Mayo is set for an inevitable change in the remainder of this decade. Resilience, adaptability and preparedness will be key.