All west Mayo Fianna Fáil roads lead back to the House of Flynn
Dr. Richard Martin
Life is competitive. Politics is competitive.
The minute a politician gets elected they automatically have a target on their back.
It’s the nature of the game. The higher you go up the food chain the bigger the target.
When do politicians start their re-election campaign? The day after a successful count.
That’s when the grind starts. The canvassing before an election is the easy bit.
Most people have their minds made up. Knocking on doors is just a gentle reminder and people appreciate the personal touch.
Alan Dillon was lucky in 2020. Well, he rode his luck. Lisa Chambers should never have lost her seat. She was elected in 2016 in a four-seater against a Taoiseach and Michael Ring.
In the lead up to that election, at a party rally, Enda Kenny infamously described some Castlebar locals as “All Ireland whingers."
In that moment the mask slipped and that comment went viral nationwide. The resultant understandable backlash virtually ensured the election of Lisa Chambers to the Dáil.
What Enda Kenny and his team failed to realise was that there was an undercurrent of truth in the criticism.
Trying to brush it off in a high handed way only highlighted the reality of the situation (and displayed arrogance). Castlebar and Mayo had a Taoiseach and the return was pitiful.
After the 2016 general election, it looked like Castlebar FF had crossed into a new dawn.
A new day. A fresh start. The Flynn era was no more. Not so.
The first mistake Lisa Chambers made was not bringing Susan Hamrock on board to run her office.
She was a vital cog in the Flynn machine and had years of experience in that role. Perhaps she felt she wanted a clean break from the Flynn era but in retrospect it was a major error.
Given the huge anger over the lack of delivery by the FG team in the town, it should’ve been open season for FF to spot the gap and exploit that opportunity and vulnerability. They didn’t.
The work on the ground was poor, and the office wasn’t as effective as it could and should have been. Going to funerals and turning the lights on in Ballyheane at Christmas is part of the grind for a TD. You just do it and that’s it and if you don’t odds are you lose your seat.
Enda Kenny resigned as Taoiseach in 2017. Some will point to the new ring road encircling the town as delivery. I see it as the bare minimum.
Currently, the scale of dereliction and neglect in the town is appalling. Surely, he could have spearheaded a move to bring the Imperial Hotel back into life in partnership with the OPW or convert the barracks into a training centre with the MSLETB or the ATU.
He didn’t. Why? Because he didn’t want to take negative press in the Dublin media. He didn’t want bad headlines in the Sunday papers which would’ve looked like he was showing favouritism to his home town.
Why did he not want bad press? Because he wanted to remain as Taoiseach. Simple as.
The abolition of the town councils under his watch was nothing short of disgraceful. Big Phil and Enda Kenny effectively destroyed local democracy in the country.
The huge sums of money from pay and display could be spent on projects around the town. We only have to do a circuit of Lough Lannagh to see what the town councils from yesteryear achieved.
Delivery in the town where we live was negligible.
The interesting thing is that people familiar with the matter have said that Alan Dillon was not the preferred successor of Enda Kenny.
According to sources, another person was his chosen heir. Sources have also said that certain members of Kenny’s team went behind his back and tapped up Dillon.
A press release by Dillon was released unbeknownst to Kenny and the Kennys and the Burkes were blindsided. There was nothing that could be done. The House of Dillon outwitted them all.
Kenny was noticeably absent from the Dillon campaign launch in 2024. FF is not the only party with internal party schisms and divisions. FG just hide it better.
Given the backdrop of anger in the town in the lead-up to the 2020 election towards Kenny and FG it is miraculous that Alan Dillon won that seat.
But he did. By the skin of his teeth.
He got 1,095 transfers from Saoirse McHugh of the Green Party. Michelle Mulherin got 831 transfers. He was behind Mulherin all the way to the sixth count and finally at the crucial moment he leapfrogged her. He was 221 votes to the good. And then in the final act, Mulherin was eliminated and her transfers helped Dillon leapfrog Lisa Chambers.
Those transfers from Saoirse McHugh ended Lisa Chambers' and Michelle Mulherin's Dáil careers. And started Dillon’s. Politics is fine margins.
If Mulherin had stayed ahead of Dillon it’s difficult to know what would’ve happened with Dillon’s transfers. My feeling is because Lisa Chambers and Alan Dillon are from Ballyheane that his transfers would’ve mostly stayed with her rather than FG.
How did Dillon retain his seat? He learned from Lisa Chambers’ mistakes.
He avoided national media for at least two years. He had no background in public life and he needed to learn fast.
He brought Councillor Ger Deere into his office who had years of experience in Kenny’s office. By bringing him on board meant that he had Deere’s discretionary funding at his disposal.
If he hadn’t brought him on board, Councillor Deere and Councillor Burke would have been needlessly outtside the tent, so to speak. That nipped that in the bud. Keep your friends close. That’s the game.
Like Councillor Deere, Councillor Burke is firmly aligned with the Dillon office now. It makes sense.
They’re both Ballintubber men and close alignment preserves the two Houses into perpetuity. The Burke dynasty will continue ad infinitum.
Deere and Burke have €70,000 each of discretionary funding to spend every year. Over five years the combined sum totals €700,000. Dillon can knock on doors in 2029 with that ground work done. Nice.
Another crucial move Dillon made was bringing his sister in-law Orla O’Connor into the office. A genius move. Proficient, efficient, hard-working, charismatic, personable, likeable…. everything you could possibly want from an office manager.
Dean Kenny is a former president of the Students Union in NUIG. He hails from Belcarra. A science graduate and a member of the National Executive of Young FG, he is definitely a man with aspirations for public office.
The Burkes and the Dillons will have to keep a close eye on him going forward. Keep him close, very close. He can manoeuvre all he wants but right now in racing parlance he’s boxed in.
The Dillon office have had the run of the town and district and they’ve made hay. Dillon came home very comfortably in 2024.
He’s there for life now and that’s that. You live and die by the decisions you make and he has the knack of making shrewd ones.
It’s hard to know whether he was a footballer or a chess player in a previous life. Let’s just say he has a knack for strategy.
It’s only a matter of time before Orla O’Connor is on the ballot paper. It’s a no-brainer decision. She’d break the 2000 plus vote barrier without breaking a sweat.
Both Deere and Orla would make it home comfortably in a local election, such is the power of that office.
Could she make a move for the senate in the years to come? It’s not beyond the realm of possibility. I hope she does.
FF need to understand what they’re up against. It’s not like the old days when there was a natural town split.
The landscape has changed and Deputy Rose Conway-Walsh is a major player in the town now. Dillon took 6,000 votes and RCW took 2,000 votes in 2024.
The next FF candidate will be up against two TDs who both have 10 years of work under their belts.
In the 1950s, when FF were FF and Lemass was the monster of public life, it took Charles Haughey three attempts to reach Dáil Éireann. Three. And Lemass was his father-in-law. He finally made it in ‘57.
Right now, if a general election is called, Dillon would beat any FF or SF candidate in the Castlebar area by two to one.
FF need to get real and get serious. The Blackie impasse needs to resolved. Bring him back into the fold or cut him loose. One or the other.
The Blueshirts are laughing gleefully at the situation. The longer the impasse persists the greater the hilarity and mirth. A maxim of war is split your enemies. Expose the divisions in the opposition camp.
RCW got 3,000 votes in the Castlebar area in 2020. She got 2,000 in 2024. That’s a fall of 33%. She has refused for some untold reason to open an official office in the town. The Dillon office will do their best to eat into her vote like ravenous wolves over the next few years.
At best she retains her 2,000 vote share. At worst she comes away with 1,000 votes. Such is the competition. Where does that leave FF? Can they even match SF?
RCW is a potential senior cabinet minister – a superlative political talent with over two decades of experience in public life. She’s arguably the most talented politician SF have at national level.
And I haven’t even mentioned Dara Calleary in this conversation. Not just the most senior politician in the county but the most pre-eminent politician in the province.
The Duffys are serious and in it for the long haul. Lawless is building a fiefdom in south Mayo.
A serious reality check is needed in Castlebar FF.
The sell at the door is potential. If you vote for me I will deliver. All roads lead back to the House of Flynn. It’s the last house on the block for Castlebar FF.
In Caoilinn Gaughan they have a very special talent – a senior cabinet minister. But talent doesn’t mean anything without work and graft.
The council elections of 2028 will tell us the lay of the land. One thing I can say for definite is that FF need to shake themselves out of the stupor of delusion and remembrance of the glorious days of P. Flynn. P. Flynn left Irish electoral politics for Europe in 1993 – a lifetime ago. A week is an eternity in politics.
I bumped into Orla at the launch of the Children’s Hospice in the TF. We were both standing at the back watching the speeches.
She was busy. And back at the office there was ‘lots to do.’
Castlebar FF need to wake up and respect the contest or they will be devoured at the next general election.