If Harry Barrett wants to become a Mayo TD, then he needs to join Sinn Féin soon
by Dr. Richard Martin
Are you the Castlebar PJ Mara?
These were the words I was greeted with when I bumped into my old friend, teacher and mentor – Councillor Harry Barrett - on Main Street.
The conversation arose as a result of a piece I contributed to this newspaper when I examined the current state of the Castlebar FF organisation and opined that Caoilinn Gaughan is the only viable future for the party in the town and south Mayo. I still stand over that opinion by the way.
There’s no amount of convincing me that there isn’t a second FF seat in this county given its history and traditions. That said, it’s going to take a stellar candidate to make the breakthrough – but she is one.
Harry’s point, which is valid, is that time has moved on. That people aren’t interested in political dynasties anymore.
People are struggling. There is a housing and rental crisis. There is a cost of living crisis. He wasn’t shy in telling me I wouldn’t know much about that either. That I come from what the French might describe as a ‘cage dorée’ – basically, I’m not in touch with the real world.
All in good sport. I might know a bit though. I lived in Galway and Dublin for a third of my life. The main reason I moved home was because I didn’t see a viable way of owning my own home outside of Mayo. Times are hard but they are a lot harder past the county boundary, believe me.
We, Harry and I, parted ways, I went away about my day and reflected on his point of view. Is their truth in what he’s saying? Is two FF and two FG seats a runner in the current political climate? Look at the recent opinion Red C polls. FF and FG are at 15% and 18% respectively. SF are at 24%. The current national seat projections are: 49 (+10) for SF, 39 (+1) for FG, 36 (-12) for FF and 22 for SD (+11).
Based on that, SF and the SDs could have 71 seats together. To achieve an overall majority SF would need 88 seats.
It’s clear that the presidential election was just a trial run for a new SF strategy. SF don’t want to go into government with either FF or FG. Coalition with FG is the kiss of death. Anyone familiar with Irish political history will attest to that. Clann na Poblachta, Labour, Democratic Left are all extinct or irrelevant. FG is the seductive mistress that will leave you bewildered and bankrupt.
What SF want and desire is to achieve power minus the civil war parties. By flexing their muscles and throwing their party machine in behind Catherine Connolly they galvanised the left voting bloc.
Suddenly, on the ground all across the island, party activists from Labour, SF, PBP and SD were all working together on the ground. I witnessed it myself here in Castlebar.
In the lead up to the presidential vote, SF activists and alphabet lefties were canvassing in unison. In supporting Catherine Connolly they united the left. The strategy is obvious.
Unite the left and take power. If all goes to plan then SF will have the balance of power on both sides of the border. In terms of numbers, SF are the largest party on the island. The challenge they face is to translate those numbers into governance.
Still and all, it’s early doors. There will be two by-elections in June. One in Galway west for Catherine Connolly’s vacated seat and one in Dublin North Central for Pascal Donohue’s vacated seat. It’s likely that the government parties will lose and SF will pick up at least one seat and probably two.
Micheál Martin is a dead man walking. The men in grey suits are lying in wait. If the opinion polls continue to show a downward trajectory in support for FF, and the by-election results are poor, it will be time for change at the top. The backbenchers won’t tolerate any further movements into the opinion poll abyss. All political careers end in failure. Unless you are Michael Ring.
A new leader in the guise of Darragh Calleary or Jim O’Callaghan could invigorate the party and they could rebound in the polls – which is what I think will happen. It’s eerily reminiscent of the end of Jack Lynch’s tenure in charge of FF in ‘79. Lynch lost two by-elections in his own backyard. In truth, FF should’ve moved on Martin’s leadership after the Jim Gavin fiasco.
If what Harry is saying is right, where is the second SF candidate? Or the other anti-government/opposition candidate. SF have only one councillor in the council chamber (Gerry Murray). FG have 10. FF have 9 (according to the FF website).
The FFG establishment alliance have 19 of the 30 seats in the council. I don’t see any shining light coming through from SF in the south of the county. There is a solid argument in saying that the SF vote in this county is largely a personal vote for two stellar candidates.
Could Harry be an alternative opposition candidate? A left wing candidate that is supported tacitly or overtly by SF during a general election run? It’s unlikely, but stranger things have happened. He needs to retain his council seat first – which he will.
There is a growing working cohort of our society that are earning too much to qualify for social housing and other supports but then aren’t earning enough to buy their own home. They are trapped in a never ending cycle of paying exorbitant rent. Harry speaks for those people.
We’ve never had a left wing government in this country. The Labour party only ever governed in tandem with FF or FG. SF want to get there, but get there as masters and commanders of the cabinet. They now understand that they will never achieve single party government and the only realistic way of governing is to do deals with others on the left.
Is Rose prepared to work with Harry? They’re both from Erris. Who knows? It’s improbable that she would surrender her entire vote share in Castlebar to Harry. The only runner is if he defected and joined SF. Is he prepared to do that to further his own political ambitions?
If Harry Barrett is serious about taking the next step in politics and being elected to the Oireachtas, he has to replicate what Mark Duffy did in Ballina by joining FG. Basically, in Harry’s case he has to join SF and fly under their banner. There is no alternative.
If SF play their cards right they could very well end up with two TDs in this constituency after the next election. However, there’s one thing you never do. You underestimate the Flynns at your peril. A lot of ground work has been done already. If I was a betting man - which I’m not - I wouldn’t bet against them.