Mayo's Dara Calleary is the main to lead Fianna Fáil
"The irony is that Leo Varadkar took down a Mayo Taoiseach and now inadvertently he may have created one"
by Dr. Richard Martin
The former Taoiseach Dr. Leo Varadkar has been in the news of late.
It seems he has created a little bit of a furore with his comments about the recent fuel protests.
Actually, you can leave the word ‘little’ out.
He created a storm of controversy when he appeared on a recent Path to Power podcast with Matt Cooper and Áine Kerr.
Of course the whole thing has been blown completely out of proportion and everything he said was reasonable and factual, even though he subsequently apologised for them.
Let’s parse through what he said.
In relation to the protesters he said the following: "They're largely a relatively well-off bunch of people who own businesses, own property, own land, own machinery, already benefit from a whole range of government subsidies and already benefit from a whole range of tax concessions.
"You know, the plain people of Ireland are the two million plus PAYE workers and their families."
Let’s stop here. And examine the facts. Not hearsay. Just the facts.
Through CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) funding, farmers have received €9.8 billion over the past five years, which is roughly €2 billion a year, €7.5 billion of which has come from the EU CAP budget and €2.3 billion from the Irish Exchequer.
How big is the agri sector? Currently, it’s 1% or 2% of Ireland’s GDP. It contributes 1% to the Irish tax revenue.
It’s minuscule in comparison to what we receive in corporation tax which is roughly €39 billion a year.
The plain PAYE sector contributes a whopping €40 plus billion annually when income tax, USC and PRSI are all combined. The total tax receipts are in the region of €100-€126 billion per annum. In actual fact, the agri sector is a net recipient sector. It receives far more in subsidies than it pays in tax.
Later in the podcast Dr. Varadkar stated: “We also need to be maybe a little bit more honest about each other.
"And people in rural Ireland are very quick to tell people in urban Ireland that we're the real workers, we're the ones paying all the bills, we're the ones feeding the country. I think maybe to be a little bit more blunt in urban Ireland and say, actually, that's not the case.
"We're the ones paying all the bills, and you're the ones who are in receipt of a lot of subsidies and a lot of tax benefits that other people don't get. And maybe we need to sit around the table and have an honest discussion about some of that kind of stuff.”
This has enraged rural Ireland. If Leo Varadkar was still in public life it’s highly unlikely he would say something like this, and it’s almost as if he relishes just speaking his mind on social media, on podcasts and in print.
When he referred to urban Ireland he didn’t mean Dublin only. This has been misconstrued. Deliberately by some.
However, the brutal truth is that huge international multinationals in urban Mayo (Hollister, Coca-Cola, Abbvie, Vantive, Meissner – which are located in Castlebar, Ballina and Westport) and the huge indigenous Irish companies like Portwest, McHales, Elverys and Smyths are the main drivers of our local and national economy, which is factually true.
In his recent memoir, Speaking My Mind, Dr. Varadkar recalls his own frustrations at former FG Taoiseach Dr. Garret Fitzgerald, who in retirement had become a regular Irish Times columnist.
FF were in government and blundering from one disaster to another and it was inevitable that they were headed for electoral disaster whenever the next GE was called.
Dr. Fitzgerald had, in Varadkar’s words, ‘used his soapbox to warn FG and Labour that if they were too hard on FF they could make things worse. Many in FG felt exasperated by Garret’s public airing of his views and this ‘unasked-for-advice’.
In 2010, in the Dáil chamber, Varadkar told Brian Cowen (the then Taoiseach): "You're no Sean Lemass, you're no Jack Lynch, and you're no John Bruton. You're a Garret FitzGerald. You've trebled the national debt, you've effectively destroyed the country."
He then told Brian Cowen that like Fitzgerald he would soon be reduced to ‘writing boring newspaper articles’ too.
The irony, of course, is that Dr. Varadkar is now doing exactly what infuriated him as a politician. In retirement, like Garret Fitzgerald, he’s giving his tuppence ha’penny worth on social media platforms, in newspaper columns and on podcasts.
He may be making factual, accurate comments, but politically it’s disastrous for rural FG TDs. And rural FF TDs who are in coalition government with FG.
His chirpings and musings from the side-lines are not doing rural based government TDs any favours. I can only imagine that the FG brethren in this county were incandescent with rage at hearing his remarks. That’s Leo I guess. His great weakness was always optics.
Varadkar succeeded Enda Kenny as Taoiseach. Succeeded is a nice way to describe it. It’s clear from his memoir that he never respected Kenny’s abilities and he was a senior member of the Bruton camp which tried to shaft him in the heave of 2010.
In the end he succeeded and he fulfilled his life’s ambition in claiming the ultimate prize in 2017.
The irony is his recent comments and outpourings have been a massive boon to Dara Calleary’s chances of becoming the next FF leader and Taoiseach. His comments have accentuated the urban/rural divide that exists and permeates rural Ireland.
There is huge resentment across rural island at the perceived entitlement and arrogance of the Dublin elite.
The recent fuel protests have been a disaster for Jim O’Callaghan in rural Ireland.
If we examine the history of FF, Haughey’s ascension to the throne in ‘79 was a backbench grassroots revolt. The rural FF TDs backed Haughey (including the man in this town).
The three young FF backbench TDs (James O’Connor, Ryan O’Meara and Albert Dolan) who recently released a statement challenging the FF leadership are all rural based. They know that their seats are under serious threat under the leadership of Micheál Martin.
Willie O’Dea excoriated Micheál Martin and the FF leadership in a recent opinion column.
The bottom line is that FF and FG TDs outside the Pale are feeling the pressure from their own constituents. Right now FF has 67 members in the Houses of the Oireachtas, 48 TDs in Dáil Éireann and 19 Senators in Seanad Éireann. Thirteen of the FF TDs are from Dublin constituencies and 35 TDs are from outside Dublin. Five of the FF senators are Dublin based.
This is what it comes down to. 49 FF members of the current Oireachtas are from outside Dublin.
It’s not surprising that Dara Calleary's odds have sharpened considerably over the past week. His close personal friendship with Darragh O’Brien also works in his favour.
Remember, Dara Calleary comes from a FF blueblood dynasty. His grandfather and father were both TDs and as such the Calleary family have a deep network nationwide throughout the FF organisation.
The worst case scenario is he becomes the Minister for Finance when Martin departs.
The best case scenario?
The Taoiseach’s office.
The number one job.
Another Mayo Taoiseach.
The irony is that Leo Varadkar took down a Mayo Taoiseach and now inadvertently he may have created one.