A Mayo View: The more politics changes, the more it remains the same!

POLITICS in Ireland has failed to see a vast sea change with the by-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West.

It’s effectively as you were for the Dáil, with a boost for the Social Democrats delivering a coup in securing Catherine Connolly’s old seat, albeit on the opposite side of the country, and Fine Gael replacing Pascal Donohoe with a ready-made western equivalent, Sean Kyne.

The excitement of the fuel protests, the general disgruntlement, the whipped-up outrage, all of it can be confined to ballot boxes, but it failed to shift the dial in either direction.

Significantly, it has been poor for Mary Lou McDonald’s party. She is facing calls for leadership change, her colleague losing out in Dublin Central.

But it’s remarkable to note how that constituency is now a cold house for anyone of the right or the centre, the green party candidate Janet Horner’s transfers deciding the direction of the seat, much like Galway West Labour Party contender Helen Ogbu.

Sinn Féin are being eaten into by the soft left and their traditional anti-establishment vote, at least in Galway, migrated towards Independent Ireland.

These results make this an even safer government, with numbers on its side and a mandate still to deliver, and there will be no election before its time.

When that does come, besides any massive political earthquake, with the polarisation and splintering continuing from the opposition departing in both left and right directions, it will favour both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, a particular strength being their transferring to one another.

It's worth pausing here, however uncomfortable for some, to acknowledge what that economy has actually done. We are in good stead, and the votes of the electorate appear to confirm that.

Ireland is a considerably wealthier country than it was a generation ago. We are, from any honest economic vantage point, broadly moving in the right direction, even as headwinds blow against all internationally exposed states.

The problem is that the distribution of that wealth is deeply uneven and that unevenness is what is driving the political temperature upward.

In rural Mayo, the anger stirred by the fuel protests has not dissipated. People who once merely whinged are now virulently angry when you speak with them.

An agricultural contractor I spoke to recently blasted the government's fuel relief package – he said he will only receive €400 despite his fuel costs doubling, while some farmers will see just the minimum €100 back from the state.

Still, it's more than the PAYE worker gets - I can hear your inner Varadkar on that point. That middle Ireland base has also grown alongside the growth of EVs on our streets, roads and boreens.

At the core, there are two majorly dissatisfied cohorts in Irish politics right now. The first is rural and self-employed - people squeezed by rising input costs, under-served by perceived urban-centric policy, and increasingly contemptuous of a political establishment they feel no longer represents them.

There is also a younger Ireland stuck at home, unable to afford rent beyond their parents' roof despite, in many cases, full-time employment and third-level degrees.

Consider the numbers. Four in ten Irish people aged 25 to 34, a cohort with the highest third-level education rate in Europe, currently live at home, twice the share as in 2012.

Seven in ten of that group work full time, compared to four in ten in 2012. The net result: 27% of Irish 25-to-34-year-olds are working full time and still living at home, up from just 8% in 2012.

The rural disgruntled faction will vote; many who would have been keen supporters of the prominent civil war parties had switched to Sinn Féin in 2020, but their vote will move now towards the populist right, Independent Ireland and Aontu likely to benefit, as witnessed by Noel Thomas’ vote.

What I find most politically fascinating is the existence of a larger cohort who are, for now, doing better than ever.

These are people in comfortable employment, with manageable or paid-off mortgages, who can afford the EV and invest in solar panels and, in doing so, sidestep dependence on global energy markets and rising costs.

They see their ESB bills falling. They no longer flinch at forecourt prices. Their property assets are rising, and a modular unit in the back garden offers the prospect of further capital gain plus rental income.

For this class, the cost-of-living crisis is something they read about rather than live. They are a formidable electoral stabiliser for any incumbent government.

It is good news for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and they know this.

There is now a fractured landscape that exposes Sinn Féin's core difficulties. The party appears to be losing its lustre with younger voters against the trendy Social Democrats - the very demographic Mary Lou’s party believed to be their destiny.

The older and rural cohort who are in sympathy with the fuel protests will move towards Independent Ireland and Aontú and some to Sinn Féin.

It will cost the odd seat here and there but there’s unlikely to be a scenario where both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil can’t muster a way back into power.

It’s as you were at the half-time break.